The Butterfly Effect, from war to humanitarian aid!

© UNRWA Ashraf Amra

“Can the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil cause a tornado in Texas? This statement by meteorologist Edward Lorenz is the origin of the Butterfly Effect theory. Can this theory now be applied to geopolitics, and with what consequences for humanitarian aid?

At the end of the International Conference in Support of Ukraine, which brought together 21 heads of state and government at the Elysée Palace on February 26, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that “nothing must be excluded”, and raised the possibility of Western troops being deployed in Ukraine itself.

Is it triggered by a balance of power that is becoming dangerously unfavorable to the Ukrainians, linked to Trump’s provocative statements about the weakness of the European war effort?

When Vladimir Putin replied in his annual address to the Russian nation, “This constitutes a real threat of conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, which means the destruction of civilization”, is this another Butterfly Effect, and how far could it lead when we know that this Butterfly Effect is also known as chaos theory?

Let’s meditate on the famous phrase by Carl Von Clausewitz, Prussian general, philosopher and military historian, in his book “The Art of War”, when he writes that war is the pursuit of politics by other means. And we are at war today on the European continent, where numerous humanitarian organizations are active in Ukraine to help the victims. Having failed to preserve peace on the continent, are we doomed to see this war last, intensify, expand to other territories, or even escalate to the use of unconventional weapons?

Some figures speak volumes.

France’s defense budget rose from 32.3 billion euros in 2017 to 47 billion euros in 2024, and is expected to reach around 70 billion euros in 2030! The general trend is similar worldwide. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 2022 represents the eighth consecutive year of growth for defense worldwide, estimated at $2,340 billion. Spending in Europe (480 billion euros in 2022) has exceeded its level at the end of the Cold War.

“If you want peace, prepare for war” goes the ancient adage, and that’s exactly what could happen now, as Europe and the United States switch to a war economy and fail to keep Ukraine supplied with shells. Russia produces 2 to 2.5 million shells a year, while the Western commitment to supply one million shells was limited to 300,000 in 9 months out of a one-year commitment.

Experts are now talking about the risk of a tipping point in the war in Ukraine, with a possible final victory for Russia. Faced with this risk, and anxious about the American elections at the end of the year, the countries of Europe are essentially in agreement: “We will do everything we can to ensure that Russia cannot win this war”.

It’s a long road to the causes and consequences that will impact on humanitarian aid and those involved. The geopolitical Butterfly Effect has now spread to the entire planet. The international order that has prevailed since the demise of the USSR is over, and we have entered a phase of fragmentation that has French general Michel Yakolveff saying, “We’re in for 20 years of chaos”.

Against this backdrop, let’s ask ourselves the following question. Is there a link between the war in Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh, now threatening Armenia and leading countries like India and France to supply arms to this country?

Armenian soldiers in front of the 50 tanks delivered by France to Armenia for defense.

Is there an imitation effect between the tug-of-war between the Alliance of Sahel States (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the renewed war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) between the army and the M23 rebel movement, militarily supported by Rwanda, and a coalition comprising Angola, South Africa and Burundi?

Is it necessary to mention the situation in Gaza to understand, as in Ukraine, that this is also a regional war with a global dimension, which plunges us into the uncertainty of its serious long-term consequences. In any case, let’s be clear here: humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza is an immediate survival emergency, and an absolute moral obligation.

Against a backdrop of deregulation of international relations, weakening of the UN and questioning of Western magisterial authority, this is an opportune moment for countries and actors who would like to take advantage of the situation to seize territories by force.

In an article, journalists Stéphane Aubouard and Alain Léauthier in Marianne calculated that if we added up the populations of countries at war with a state, those in civil war, in hybrid war or in civil war, this would represent 48% of the world’s population. These conflicts are just as likely to worsen as to spread, at a time and in an environment favorable to any challenge to the established order.

What’s the Butterfly Effect for humanitarian aid?

Will humanitarian needs increase, stabilize or decrease? This is the question we need to ask ourselves in order to prepare for the most likely scenario. Fragmentation is a source of conflict, as we can see from the tensions in Moldavia with Transnistria and in the Balkans.

While the consequences of conflict currently account for the lion’s share of humanitarian aid, let’s not forget that climate disruption and its catastrophes, water stress, hunger and the gradual depletion of natural resources against a backdrop of demographic growth and exponentially increasing consumption will amplify and accelerate the need for humanitarian responses.

What will be the trend over the coming years in terms of people’s access to relief? Improvement, stabilization or regression? Do the examples of Gaza, the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine and the war-torn territories of the Sahel countries illustrate the trend?

Will funding be sufficient to meet the vital needs of populations affected by war, disaster or epidemics? According to OCHA and Martin Griffiths, the alarm bells were ringing in 2023, with the worst funding shortfall on record, when only 19.9 billion USD of the 56.7 billion USD estimated at the end of the year had been raised! What will happen in 2024 and beyond?

France, which had increased its Official Development Assistance (ODA) from less than 10 billion euros in 2017 to more than 15 billion in 2022, has just cut its 2024 ODA by 746 million euros as part of a 10 billion euro plan to reduce public spending, for lack of sufficient growth! How can we compensate for this loss, how can we make up for it in 2025?

The big question, then, is whether the new international context of conflict and the arms race, of a transition to a war economy that would cause constraints and shortages in certain sectors, will see ODA and humanitarian aid sanctuarized at the level of needs or, on the contrary, reduced.

Not to mention the risk of humanitarian aid being politicized, both by certain states and by various organizations. The recent publication of an article entitled “La folle dérive des ONG” (“The mad drift of NGOs”) in the magazine Franc-tireur, calling into question the impartiality of human rights NGOs, should give us food for thought about how to maintain public and donor confidence, and strengthen access to populations at risk.

For a humanitarian aggiornamento.

© UNWRA. Supply trucks for Gaza waiting to enter.

Humanitarians today are faced with a host of challenges, some of which depend on them, others on which they have little or no control. The humanitarian sector needs to reconsider its human, financial and logistical capacities, as well as its capacity for innovation, public support and influence.

Influence is more than ever essential if humanitarian concerns are to be kept alive, broadened and deepened in public policy. Whether we’re talking about ODA, humanitarian funding, access to water, food, shelter and healthcare, or all the interacting factors such as climate, water, natural resources and the environment, all of which I can’t mention here.

Don’t get me wrong, I believe in influencing humanitarian public policy, not in some partisan ideology using humanitarianism to weaken our influence and ultimately our action. Others can do it, but mixing genres is contrary to the humanitarian principles of neutrality, impartiality and independence, which are the main conditions for humanitarian access, often abused, sometimes blocked, but always essential.

In this editorial, despite the description of a rather gloomy geopolitical landscape, my aim is to be realistic. While the worst is fortunately never certain, to prevent it we must act accordingly, and today’s world also harbors many signs of hope, including the precious optimism of the will to avoid chaos and preserve humanism.

This article is an illustration of the editorial policy of the online magazine Défis Humanitaires. Analyze, anticipate, propose and debate for a more intelligent and effective humanitarianism. Debate, as we are doing here once again on the dramatic situation in Gaza, and as we will continue to do for the future of humanitarianism.

 

Alain Boinet

Alain Boinet is President of the association Défis Humanitaires, which publishes the online magazine http://www.defishumanitaires.com. He is the founder of the humanitarian association Solidarités International, of which he was Managing Director for 35 years. He is also a member of the Groupe de Concertation Humanitaire at the Centre de Crise et de Soutien of the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, and of the Board of Directors of Solidarités International, the Partenariat Français pour l’Eau (PFE), the Véolia Foundation and the Think Tank (re)sources. He continues to travel to the field (North-East Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh and Armenia) and to speak to the media.

 

We are pleased to offer you articles and interviews on Gaza, Armenia and Kurdistan, as well as articles on water to mark World Water Day on March 22. Thank you for your support (MakeaDonation). Issue 86 :

Interview with Danila Zizi from Handicap International

An Interview with Danila Zizi, former country manager at Handicap International in Palestine. This interview took place on the 15th of February 2024 while Danila still occupied her functions as Country Manager.

In response to Al-Shifa Hospital’s appeal for assistive devices and medical supplies the HI team in Gaza was finally able to access the emergency stock in Gaza City and donated over 200 items including around 150 wheelchairs along with walkers crutches medical mattresses and wound dressing kits. February 2024 © Handicap International

Alain Boinet: Danila, for the benefit of our readers could you remind us how long Handicap International has been active in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and tell us what your personal role was? What operations you were running in Gaza and the composition of your team on the ground before the 7th of October?

Danila Zizi: Handicap International started operations in the occupied Palestinian territory in 1994, basically in the aftermath of the signature of the Oslo agreement. In Gaza, we started the process in 2007 and we were operational at the end of 2008. Before the escalation of the hostilities in Gaza, we were operating in three main sectors:

  • One was a complex programming related to early childhood development that also addressed the entire sphere of the family. So basically, the child from detection until enrollment into school, but also support to the family with voucher assistance whenever the family did not have any source of income.
  • We also had in a consortium a program on rehabilitation and inclusion, that was run in the Gaza strip.
  • And lastly, we had inclusive education in emergency.

So, these were the three of our programming in the Gaza Strip prior to the hostilities. There was also a very huge component of preparedness, and this is what allowed us to be operational immediately when the hostilities started. We had five warehouses in each Governorate of Gaza, and we trained over the years 300 volunteers in a variety of topics. Our volunteers have knowledge in nursing, physiotherapy, we have social workers and psychologists. HI was able to operate in a variety of settings from really supporting safe evacuation if needed, down to early debilitation for injured people and in the middle of wounding, also including a provision of risk education sessions against the risk on mines.

Risk Education sessions by HI Volunteers in UN shelters in Khan younis, Gaza.Bombing and use of explosive weapons leave a contamination that is dangerous for civilians. © HI

Alain Boinet: Personally, how long did you stay in the field?

Danila Zizi: In and out I have been on the occupied Palestinian territory six years. This is not my first time. My first time in the OPT was at the end of 2014, after the 2014 war. I joined HI in Palestine in 2017 as a field coordinator for West Bank and then I came back in 2021 as country manager.

Alain Boinet: How did you live through the Hamas attack on Israel on the 7th of October? Four months later, what are the consequences of the war for the population in Gaza as well for Handicap International and its team?

Danila Zizi: I think that, like everyone, we were completely shocked at the beginning of the scale of the operations conducted on the 7th of October. The scale that was put in place on the 7th of October immediately made us realize that the response and the retaliation would not be either quick or easy. There has always been a hostility situation when it comes between Gaza and Hamas and the State of Israel. But it has been an escalation that is unprecedented in the territory. Today, over 28,000 people have died. 11,500 of these people were children, so below the age of 14. There have been more than 68,000 injured people, 1.7 million displaced. By the latest accounts, 17,000 children are alone and unaccompanied, either because they have lost their families in the process of evacuating or because their parents are dead. These children are completely alone dealing with the consequences of these hostilities. More than 60% of the civilian infrastructures in Gaza have been either destroyed or severely damaged.

Missile strikes have caused widespread destruction in Gaza, like those photographed here in October 2023. © WHO

Since the beginning of January, HI co-leads the mine action working group in the Gaza Strip. Oversees, comparisons and analysis that the mine action working group have done together also with some other sources have reported 45,000 bombs dropped in the Gaza strip, and that doesn’t count the last month or so. Of course, now the number has increased. This number represents 7.5 times more than the number of bombs dropped in 2014 throughout the 55 days of the war in 2014. This is a major disaster. The failure rate of the bombs in 2014 was approximately 20% because of lower technology. By the way, not all of these bombs have been cleared out. So now with what is happening there are these previous bombs dropped in the Gaza strip that remain unexploded in the ground and on top of that, the failure rate now because of technology is lower. It is placed between 10 and 15%. Which all sums up to more than 3000 potential bombs unexploded in the territory. These are extreme consequences, there are immediate consequences, because whenever the population moves, they are not safe, they can run into unexploded bombs. But the situation is so dramatic that even if the population is aware of the risk – and HI has a very strong programming on risk education currently ongoing in Gaza together with other actors such as NPA or UNICEF, that are all doing risk education and CPP (Conflict protection and prevention) – Despite the awareness, people still chose to go and look in the rubbles for food, water, and anything viable despite the fact that in the rubbles you may find unexploded bombs and the people is so desperate that they are also not reporting whenever they identify, or they see an item. This also gives the scale of the dramatic situation in the Gaza Strip. The population still decide to take the chance to go and look for food and water, even though that might result in their death or severe injury. At the same time, it is unpleasant for the Gaza strip, the complete lack of food and the complete dependence of aid. There is no food or water that does not come from humanitarian aid at the moment in Gaza. So virtually 2 400 000 people are entirely depending on aid: no aid means no food or no water.

HI truck at the Rafah border crossing on the way to the HI warehouse. December 2023. © HI

Alain Boinet: Have you managed to continue your action and to be in regular contact with your team in Gaza? Are you able to receive supplies from outside tanks through the humanitarian convoy?

Danila Zizi: Constant contact is unusual and doesn’t apply to the Gaza strip. We have lost contact with our colleagues in Gaza multiple times throughout these four months, sometimes even for one week straight due to the telecommunication cuts which are affecting the entire population. And here I need to stress that it is not just about us contacting our team, but also internally for them to check on their beloved ones. There have been days and days in which they could not even check if their beloved ones were still alive. From the mental health perspective, it is an atrocious situation. At the same time, due to our preparedness program before the escalation of the hostilities, HI was able to intervene quite immediately. We mobilized the volunteers and our warehouses quite soon after the beginning of the escalation. At the same time, due to HI’s emission in Egypt, we were supported in the purchasing and coordination for the transfer of trucks and humanitarian aid into the state.

We are importing items and providing early rehabilitation to injured people and people with disabilities that we identified inside the designated shelters. We provide assistive devices, nonfood items such as hygiene kits, dignity kits, kitchen sets for the ones that are displaced and do not have anything with them, dressing, first aid kits and all that is related to that. We are as well able to provide recreational activities inside, so basically modify our education activities to become recreational activities and include some PSS component into them for the children in terms of stress release. We are performing risk education as well such as CPP.

In a camp for displaced persons, recreational sessions were organized with the aim of creating a normalized environment and calming children deeply disturbed by the bombardments. These sessions, led by HI volunteers, feature fun activities such as games, shows, dancing and singing. February 2024. © S. Hejji – HQ

Alain Boinet: How many disabled people are there in Gaza? And what can you do for them?

Danila Zizi: Prior to the escalation of the hostilities, 21% of the population was recorded with some form of disability, so that amounts to more than 400,000 people. It is impossible to determine how many we are looking at now. The impressive number of injured people suffer from a variety of severe to mild injuries. All of them have a high percentage of possibilities to become permanent because the health system has completely collapsed, so it means that there is no trauma care that could prevent disability.

Until we get complete eyes on the ground, meaning access throughout the Gaza Strip, it is impossible to determine how many persons with disabilities are now in the state. We also must consider that people with disabilities are the most exposed to the conflict.

Imagine a deaf person who cannot hear the alerts, does not hear the planes just cannot deal with bombing. A person who is in a wheelchair cannot evacuate because they cannot move for kilometers on destroyed roads.

We will most probably have a scenario in which many people with disabilities were unfortunately killed during the hostilities and more are created because of the injuries created by these hostilities.

Alain Boinet: How is the humanitarian principle of neutrality, partiality and dependence applied? And what about the application of international humanitarian law in Gaza?

Danila Zizi: HI applies all those principles in the states where we provide Humanitarian aid. This is a question asked by many journalists to HI or, to international NGOs to provide suggestions on the terms of a ceasefire or a resolution of the conflict. Of course, we have our own impression, but this is not our role, our role is to provide humanitarian aid to whomever is in need, no matter where they are.

At the same time, it is undeniable that there is a strong suspect that international humanitarian law is disregarded in the Gaza strip by all parties since the 7th of October, the international humanitarian law has been disregarded. HI is not a human rights organization, so we do not document consistently, there are other actors that do so.

Alain Boinet: UNRWA employees are suspected of taking part in the Hamas attack on Israel on the 7th of October, as a result, several countries have stopped funding UNRWA. What do the humanitarian workers on the ground think?

Danila Zizi: UNRWA is substantially the backbone of the response. It is the only actor in the Gaza strip that has enough logistic capacities to carry on a response. Enough vehicles, enough personnel to respond to the needs of the displaced people – not that that is near enough, the scale of the needs are so high that not even UNRWA alone could provide a thorough response. However, they are the backbone, they have supported humanitarian response in terms of vehicles, in terms of logistic support, so the responses could not happen without UNRWAs facilities.

UNRWA support the transport of HI donated items to collective shelters- Middle Area.© HI

They also – and this is the paradox – are the only actor entrusted by the state of Israel to manage fuel. They are the ones that distribute fuel to essential facilities such as hospitals and humanitarian organizations for moving.

This is where we have a paradox, on one side UNRWA is currently under attack and many countries have decided to suspend or freeze their fundings, and at the same time they are the only actors that do and can perform a comprehensive response on the ground. So obviously we all ask for the funds to UNRWA not to be suspended or even being moved to other entities. Simply no one can do what they do. On top of that, I do feel that it is quite dangerous that we base our decision on allegations without waiting for the investigation to be over.

Alain Boinet: More than 50% of Gaza buildings have been destroyed and the war now looks set to continue in Rafah. How do you see this and what do you think could happen?

Danila Zizi: I think many agencies and people on the ground have already defined this as a catastrophe because it is a catastrophe. An offensive into Rafah is unimaginable. There would be nowhere to go for the population, where are they supposed to go? There is literally nowhere, beyond Rafah, there is the border. At the east of Rafah, there are canyons, the barrier and armed hostilities, at west there is the sea, so they cannot move.

The point is that. The state of Israel is okay for a safe evacuation of civilians but has not said yet where these people should go and how they should move. It is substantially impossible to do that and on top of that, there is the fact that Rafah is the only area in which Humanitarian response is operating at the moment with some form of assistance and resources. Beyond that it would be simply impossible to respond to the needs of the population, it would be impossible to distribute food, water, and any basic need. I hope they reconsider, and I invite everyone to pressure the parties not to move forward.

HI’s team in Lyon at headquarters. Support to their colleagues and friends in Palestine who have participated to a Crisis Action initiative to denounce the shortage of fuel in Gaza and the need of an immediate ceasefire.© A. Bachès / HI

Alain Boinet: As someone who has lived and provided humanitarian aid for years in Gaza and the West Bank, how do you see events unfolding and do you think a negotiated solution is possible in the future?

Danila Zizi: I haven’t allowed myself to think very much of the future. This is my personal perspective, so I’m not providing HI’s perspective on this. It is hard to think of the future unless there is a willingness to open dialogue and also to provide justice.

I have studied law for many years, so I’m a lawyer specialized in international humanitarian law, and I always remember that my professor said that there could not be peace without justice, any peace built without justice is a fragile peace. I do believe in that, if there is no justice for all parties, there will never be peace or future.

Alain Boinet: How would you like to conclude?

Danila Zizi: I would like to conclude by saying that sometimes we are very caught up into numbers. The number of people that have been killed, the number of people that have been injured and we forget the faces. Each number has a face, a name, a story, potentially some dreams in their lives that have been completely destroyed.

Most of the time, all of them are innocent. The people need to remember that the consequences of this war are devastating.

We have encountered many heartbreaking cases. One of the testimonies that we collected from the Gaza strip was the one of a person with a disability who had completely lost every single piece of his dignity. This man was refusing food and water whenever provided because he could not access the toilet. There are hours of cue to go to the toilet. People start queuing to go to the toilet at 5:00 AM in the morning, he could not do so. To avoid going to the toilet too often, he was avoiding eating and drinking. This is how you strip out the dignity of a person. We cannot forget that this is just one case and there are so many cases like that in the Gaza strip. So many women and children are reduced to beg in the street at the mercy of other people because they cannot reach out to aid. We cannot forget that. We need to stop it.

Alain Boinet: Thank you, Danila.

 

Danila Zizi

Danila Zizi has a 15-year career in the humanitarian field. She has been the Director of Humanity & Inclusion’s operations in the West Bank and Gaza since November 2021 and was previously Humanity & Inclusion Country Director in Lebanon. She has been working with Humanity & Inclusion for 6 years, primarily in the Middle-East. Danila is a specialist in international humanitarian law.