Trump is causing a humanitarian tsunami.

President Donald Trump signs executive orders © White House

The decision by the Trump administration, led by Elon Musk, has hit the humanitarian and development aid sector like a bolt from the blue. After a 90-day freeze on all programmes, almost all the employees of USAID and its agencies (BHA, BPRM) were immediately dismissed.

Then, on the night of 26-27 February, humanitarian actors received letters suddenly cutting off funding in countries where emergency relief is vital, such as Sudan, Syria, Niger, Yemen and Mozambique.

What is striking is the suddenness and brutality of the decision, and we can only be pessimistic for the future when we learn that more than 10,000 programmes have been sacrificed, along with 92% of USAID’s budget, according to indications yet to be confirmed.

It’s an earthquake, a tidal wave, a tsunami, a cataclysm, unprecedented because budgets have only been increasing for over 35 years, even though the curve of resources was falling compared with that of needs, according to a scissor effect that we analysed here recently.

The fall will be all the harder when we know that in 2023, while global Official Development Assistance (ODA) reached USD 223 billion, the contribution of the United States, the largest contributor, represented USD 64.7 billion, including USD 14.5 billion in humanitarian assistance. Without knowing what will happen to the State Department’s budget in this area, we can measure the haemorrhaging of aid when observers indicate that American aid represents 42% of international aid.

The humanitarian consequences are immediate when, depending on the organisation, American funding sometimes represents between 20% and 50% of its budget! One NGO has had to suspend immediately a drinking water supply programme for 650,000 displaced persons in Darfur, while another organisation has had to stop its programme of 850,000 medical consultations in Afghanistan.

Distribution of hygiene kits in Kulbus, 300km from Al Geneina in Darfur 2 ©Solidarités International

There is no doubt that this decision by the Trump administration will lead to a deterioration in survival conditions and ultimately to an increase in mortality among vulnerable populations, as well as a great deal of despair when aid is cut off so abruptly without even having had time to organise to limit the shock. We need to be able to assess the terrible human consequences this will have, without forgetting the responsibility of the States and the protagonists of the conflicts towards their populations.

Frankly, whatever the reasons for the Trump administration’s decision, it is not responsible to put the lives of so many human beings and the partner organisations that help them at risk in this way. What is the value of the word and credibility of a country that behaves like this with regard to humanitarian and development aid? We are talking here about saving lives and escaping from extreme poverty. This is neither a luxury nor an action contrary to the defence or promotion of the United States, which is no longer recognised in this decision!

A humanitarian tsunami.

We need to understand and act quickly. We are facing a drastic reduction in humanitarian and development aid from the United States, but also from other countries that are now cutting back on Official Development Assistance and humanitarian aid, despite some rare counter-examples.

Germany, for example, has already announced a drastic 53% cut in its humanitarian aid by 2025, from an initial level of €2.77 billion. Similarly, France, which had planned a budget of one billion euros in 2025, will only be spending half that amount, while at the same time its Official Development Assistance will lose more than 2 billion euros this year.

The case of the UK is emblematic of this serious and lasting trend. This country set an example by devoting 0.7% of its GDP to ODA until the end of the 2010s. Back in 2020, Boris Johnson, then Conservative Prime Minister, reduced ODA from 0.7% to 0.5% of gross domestic product (GDP). It is now set to fall to 0.3%. ‘I’m not happy about this announcement’, said the new Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

At the same time, the UK’s defence budget will rise from 2.3% of GDP to 2.5% from 2027, and should rise to 3% by 2030. As a result, the British defence budget, which stood at 77 billion euros in 2024, will increase by 16.1 billion euros each year from 2027 to meet the risk of war in Europe.

The shock for the humanitarian sector is massive and violent. Apart from the NGOs that have most of their funds from public generosity and have the necessary cash flow, for the majority of NGOs this means the closure of programmes and country missions, as well as redundancies in the field and at headquarters of between 20% and 50% of staff.

This process has already begun among NGOs and will continue, especially as it is still difficult to assess the indirect consequences, such as the interruption of American funding to United Nations agencies that call on international and national NGOs. There is even talk of the United States withdrawing from various multilateral organisations, and Elon Musk has even gone so far as to support an exit from the UN!

Women and children collecting unsafe water in Kenya, causing sometimes fatal water-borne diseases © Water.org

In this edition, we publish two articles to mark World Water Day on 22 March. Access to drinking water and sanitation, and water for agriculture, are vital needs for populations. What will become of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals 2015-2030, including Goal 6 for water, in this context?

What are the alternatives for humanitarian actors?

While the effects are global, they will be felt in different ways depending on the level of partnership with USAID, BHA, BPRM and the business model of each NGO.

Faced with a drastic reduction in funding for humanitarian and development aid, the consequences are massive, rapid and lasting. The priority is to safeguard, as far as possible, both aid to populations and the operational core of relief organisations.

In this context, we will have to rely as much on our own strengths and re-mobilise the internal potential of each organisation and its supporters, as we will have to optimise the pooling of resources to save money and build alliances with other organisations and with countries and public or private institutions that will remain mobilised for humanitarian security.

For the time being, we are faced with two contradictory injunctions. We need to reduce the number of organisations while preserving their operational core as a driving force for action and recovery. Each organisation will have to provide a time-calibrated response. The NGO coordinations will put forward an adapted and convincing global plea that goes beyond the usual language.

Here is a summary of the areas of effort identified, which each organisation will optimise:

Mobilisation of all internal resources, governance, head office, field.
Optimising the pooling of purchasing and operational innovation in aid.
Mobilising individual donors, corporate partners, foundations and local authorities.
Optimising partnerships with institutional partners in France and other EU member states, other countries and the UN.
Prospecting and developing other partners such as non-European OECD member countries (Canada, Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc.) and the Gulf States.

More concretely, solutions such as the State Guaranteed Loan (SGL) should be explored as a response to the security and redeployment of humanitarian NGOs.

In France, the Groupe de Concertation Humanitaire (GCH), which brings together humanitarian NGOs and Coordination Sud with the Centre de Crise et de Soutien (CDCS) of the Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, will be a major vector for mobilisation and a relay with Europe and the United Nations. This work has already begun.

VOICE at the European Parliament’s Development Committee with the ICRC, MSF and the EU Red Cross.

The European level is essential, both for DG ECHO’s 2025 budget, whose Emergency Aid Reserve (EAR) could be significantly increased. The Multiannual Financial Framework (2028-2025) of the new European Commission will be the litmus test of the political will to strengthen humanitarian security at a time when the United States is pulling out.

This is where VOICE, the umbrella organisation for European humanitarian NGOs, will have a major role to play in promoting appropriate proposals to the European Commission this year. This action will be more effective if it is coordinated with governments, NGOs, the Red Cross family and United Nations agencies. With this in mind, VOICE ‘calls on the European Union to take the lead in a global strategic dialogue to develop a new humanitarian system’.

Against a backdrop of national debt, balance of payments deficits, political and social instability, uncertainty about identity and the future, the abandonment of the United States and a reduction in ODA, humanitarian actors must also fundamentally review their communications and advocacy, which are already outdated.

Aid will be questioned, challenged and called into question both politically and in relation to other priorities. What is a priority, what is not, what has become superfluous? What is the humanitarian raison d’être and what is its real added value? Why is it necessary, if not essential? What do we do with the money? How do we convince people now? As a friend said to me, how do you convince a voter in Wisconsin or the Massif Central to help Ukraine, Haiti, Myanmar or Sudan?

Towards a new Yalta?

A geopolitical tsunami.

Over and above the essential question of funding, humanitarians are going to have to live with and adapt to a major geopolitical upheaval. Donald Trump is turning the tables on international relations and putting an end to two of the European Union’s fundamental pillars – the transatlantic link (NATO), multilateralism and international law. We are returning to the balance of power, with old empires reawakening.

This began with Russia’s war in Ukraine, which opens the door to other possible conflicts in Europe itself. But it is also the path taken by China when it threatens Taiwan and wants to occupy all the space in the China Sea and the straits, the path taken by Turkey in the eastern Mediterranean and now in Syria, the path taken by Azerbaijan against Armenia, the path taken by Rwanda and the M23 in the DRC. The law of the strongest. Others will follow!

The vote on 24 February at the United Nations on support for Ukraine and its territorial integrity gives an idea of the upheavals underway when the United States votes against with Russia and the number of votes against and abstentions increases considerably compared with the previous vote on 2 March 2022.

After 3 years of war, Ukraine is still in danger. Borodianka, Kyiv Oblast, 6 April. Photo: Oleksandr Ratushniak / UNDP Ukraine

The rapprochement between the United States and Russia is a return to the condominium of the Cold War, leaving Europe surprised and in danger. In view of the risk to freedom, independence and sovereignty posed by a possible war in Europe, beyond Ukraine, a rapid and massive increase in Europe’s defence budgets will be essential in the long term. The European Union is going to have to review its fundamentals if it is to face up to the new world that is asserting itself with force. It will have to rely on its roots, its historical realities and its peoples if it is to exist and be strong, because there is a great risk that it will be dismantled and/or subservient.

Conclusion.

The humanitarian sector is caught up in a larger, more powerful whole which sets its own pace and priorities. How will the humanitarian sector survive and renew itself in this tsunami? This is the existential question facing the sector today.

Its raison d’être, which is to save lives, is still its mission in the face of wars, disasters and epidemics. The development of fragile countries is still the best response to people’s basic needs. And our experience teaches us that failure to do so will generate instability one step at a time, according to the theory of the butterfly effect or the domino effect, which creates chaos and human suffering.

Alain Boinet.

Alain Boinet is President of the association Défis Humanitaires, which publishes the online magazine www.defishumanitaires.com. He is the founder of the humanitarian association Solidarités International, of which he was Managing Director for 35 years. He is also a member of the Groupe de Concertation Humanitaire at the Centre de Crise et de Soutien of the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, and of the Board of Directors of Solidarités International, the Partenariat Français pour l’Eau (PFE), the Véolia Foundation and the Think Tank (re)sources. He continues to travel to the field (Northeast Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh and Armenia) and to speak out in the media.

 

 

I invite you to read these interviews and articles published in the edition :

Pooling is no longer an option, it is a necessity

The hulo humanitarian cooperative reacts to the sudden suspension of US humanitarian funding for foreign countries

© Nikola Krtolica – Hulo team at Liège airport for an EU humanitarian airlift flight, observing cargo bound for Afghanistan.

In March 2024, we reported in Défis Humanitaires on the recognition received by hulo (HUmanitarian LOgistics) with the 2023 InnovAid humanitarian innovation prize awarded at the European Humanitarian Forum (EHF) on 18 and 19 March 2024, and the publication of its 2024 impact report. This is an opportunity to take stock of the issues addressed by this humanitarian cooperative, which was created in June 2021 in the wake of the RLH (Humanitarian Logistics Network) and now brings together 16 humanitarian organisations.

However, with US President Donald Trump’s decision on 20 January to freeze US funding for humanitarian and development aid abroad for at least 90 days (in particular through the USAID/BHA agencies), there has never been a greater need to accelerate economies of scale in the humanitarian system, whose very survival is at stake in this episode. It’s time to analyse the consequences and challenges of this crucial moment – when logistics are at the heart of the humanitarian engine threatened with running out of fuel – again with Jean-Baptiste Lamarche, Managing Director of hulo :

  • DH: Hello Jean-Baptiste. First of all, as the head of a humanitarian organisation, what is your reaction, and that of hulo more broadly, to the decision taken by the US President on 20 January?

For hulo, with its 16 member organisations, including Bioport and Atlas Logistique in particular, as for all humanitarian actors, this decision is staggering. What we thought was an impossible scenario, the humanitarian sector’s worst nightmare, is happening before our very eyes. The consequences of such a decision are disastrous: funding collapses overnight, cash flow is unable to absorb a shock of this magnitude, projects are abruptly halted, leaving entire teams without work and, above all, vulnerable populations without the support they depend on. This is an extremely hard blow for the entire sector and for communities around the world.

  • DH: What humanitarian impacts do you think we need to be prepared for, particularly in terms of global food security, epidemic risks, population movements and migration? Is there not also a risk of pressure being put on humanitarian actors who are still in a position to respond to needs, as well as on non-American donors, whose attitude and policies we do not know?

The direct impact on populations is likely to be immense and, more generally, we risk a global imbalance and multidimensional aberrations.

In terms of food security, the sudden reduction in funding could exacerbate precariousness in already fragile regions, accelerating nutritional crises and exposing millions of people to hunger.

In terms of health, the suspension of certain programmes could lead to a resurgence of epidemics, particularly in areas where medical infrastructures are heavily dependent on international aid. Diseases that can be prevented by vaccination or basic treatment could resurface, jeopardising years of progress in public health.

As for population migration and displacement, the domino effect is obvious: the deterioration in living conditions in certain areas will force thousands, if not millions, of people to seek refuge elsewhere, heightening tensions at borders and in host countries.

Finally, it is feared that the humanitarian actors who are still operational will be put under extreme pressure. With fewer people on the ground, demand will explode, making coordination and resource allocation even more complex.

The response of non-American donors will be decisive: will they compensate for this vacuum or, on the contrary, revise their commitments downwards for fear of a political chain reaction? This uncertainty adds further instability to a sector that is already under strain.

hulo deputy country coordinator during a helicopter operation with the Airbus Foundation in Burkina Faso.
  • DH: You are the head of a humanitarian organisation. The leaders of humanitarian organisations will have to, and are already having to, make difficult and painful decisions as a result of the US administration’s decision. What is your view and analysis of this aspect of managing the current crisis?

Faced with this crisis, we are being forced to take some extremely difficult decisions, which run counter to our commitments and our mission. The reduction or abrupt cessation of certain programmes is a painful reality, with direct consequences for the populations we support and the teams working in the field.

The main challenge is to prioritise and cushion the impact as much as possible. This means identifying the most critical programmes, trying to optimise certain funding, looking for new partners and strengthening coordination and pooling with other humanitarian actors.

Internally, we also have to manage the human impact within our own organisations. Our teams are in shock, faced with major uncertainty. The need to be transparent and to offer prospects, however limited, is essential to maintain the confidence and commitment of those who remain mobilised.

Finally, this crisis is forcing us to rethink our funding models and organisational structures, where there is still plenty of scope for optimisation in the sector.

  • DH: Would you say that this decision by the US administration is an absolute ‘first’, or is there a parallel with certain previous situations, such as during the COVID 19 pandemic?

It’s not an absolute ‘first’ in terms of a crisis, but it’s a breakthrough on an unprecedented scale. Parallels can be drawn with previous crises, notably the COVID-19 pandemic, which had already revealed the fragility of humanitarian funding and dependence on certain donors. During that period, many programmes were suspended or redirected to health emergencies, leaving other crises underfunded.

What makes this situation different is that it is taking place at a time when humanitarian crises are already on the increase, and needs are exploding. Unlike the COVID period, when emergency funding was mobilised, we are now facing a net collapse in financial support with no immediate prospect of compensation. This is forcing the humanitarian sector to urgently rethink the way it operates and its sources of funding.

Pooling resources appears to be one of the most pragmatic and effective solutions to this crisis. In a context where funding is becoming brutally scarce, breaking down silos, avoiding unnecessary duplication and increasing solidarity between humanitarian actors is becoming a necessity in order to optimise the impact of remaining resources.

By pooling resources – whether in terms of logistics, infrastructure, purchasing, information systems or even specialised human resources – organisations can reduce their operational costs while maintaining a reasonable level of intervention. This allows every available euro to be allocated where it is really needed, rather than being diluted by parallel structures or administrative inefficiencies. Bioport and Atlas, members of hulo, are two pooling players who have been providing international and local logistics services for over 30 years, and are fully mobilised to bring their solutions to humanitarian organisations as part of the management of this crisis.

In addition, this approach strengthens the collective resilience of the sector. Rather than competing for dwindling funding, NGOs and humanitarian actors need to work even more closely together, pooling certain support functions and concentrating on their specific added value. The hulo cooperative has shown that humanitarian logistics and supply chains create more value and impact through cooperation than through individual management.

In this crisis context, this should even encourage the sector’s leaders to initiate a structural transformation towards greater collaboration between their structures in order to adapt to difficult contexts such as these.

  • DH: What role can and should a cooperative like hulo play in this process? What directions for innovation and what levers for pooling do you want to push and develop ‘as a matter of urgency’? What practical tools can be used to ensure that, as you say, ‘pooling creates value’ even more, and to enable the continuation of activities that are vital to the millions of people around the world who depend on humanitarian aid?

Hulo and its members, particularly Bioport and Atlas, are positioning themselves as catalysts for solutions to this crisis, by accelerating and extending the pooling of resources and capacities among humanitarian organisations. The humanitarian economic equation, dependent on mainly public funding, requires rigorous management and maximum optimisation to ensure the best use of available resources. Pooling is therefore a solution that can be implemented immediately with tangible results. Hulo has developed cooperative processes and tools to structure and facilitate pooling between humanitarian actors, including pooled purchasing, digital solutions and initiatives shared between organisations. These tools are ready to be deployed on a large scale to maximise humanitarian impact while making the sector more efficient, more resilient and better prepared for future crises. Pooling is no longer an option, it’s a necessity.

Hulo country coordinator with Solidarités International enriched flour ordered via a Joint Purchasing Initiative (JPI) in Burkina Faso.
  • DH: In these extremely uncertain times, some humanitarian organisations may be tempted to turn in on themselves and look for solutions internally. Would you say that this is the risk that humanitarian organisations must avoid, and that openness is more essential than ever?

Withdrawal is both instinctive in a precarious situation and undoubtedly the greatest risk for humanitarian organisations in this period of crisis. Faced with the sudden halt in funding and the uncertainties hanging over the sector, the temptation to favour internal solutions may seem natural. However, this approach runs the risk of limiting the potential for solutions, and even exacerbating the difficulties by fragmenting resources even further and reducing the sector’s collective effectiveness. More than ever, openness and cooperation between players are essential to maintain aid to vulnerable populations. Pooling resources, sharing expertise and coordinating actions not only makes it possible to achieve economies of scale, but also guarantees greater responsiveness to urgent needs. Hulo defends this vision by proposing tools and processes that facilitate pooling, so that NGOs can overcome this crisis together, rather than suffering its consequences alone. It is by joining forces that the humanitarian sector will be able to rise to the challenges of today.

  • DH: Can you think of a concrete example, in a specific field, of a strengthened pooling response, in collaboration with one or more of your partners, that was able to provide at least a partial response to the funding shortfall caused by the US decision?

It is still too early to cite a concrete example of pooling set up in direct response to the suspension of US funding, as the decision was only taken a month ago. At this stage, NGOs are still in an evaluation phase: they are trying to understand precisely which funding will be maintained, which will be definitively lost and what will happen after the 90-day deadline announced by the US administration. Not all organisations have been affected in the same way, with some taking the full brunt while others are, for the time being, less directly affected. What they all have in common, however, is the need to adapt and adjust their plans to ensure the continuity of aid. In this context of uncertainty, the pooling of resources and cooperation between players appear to be strategic levers for limiting the impact of this crisis and making humanitarian operations as secure as possible. Hulo is working to identify these evolving needs with organisations on the ground to see how pooling can meet their requirements.

  • DH: Thank you very much Jean-Baptiste. To conclude, do you have a message to pass on to your partners, NGOs and others, and to the readers of Défis Humanitaires?

At this time of extreme uncertainty, our message is simple: now more than ever is the time for cooperation and pooling. Faced with the brutality of the new American administration’s decision and its repercussions, it is essential that the humanitarian sector does not fragment but, on the contrary, strengthens its synergies. Each organisation is now seeking to adapt its plans, but it is together that we will be able to find viable and sustainable solutions to continue to support the populations that depend on humanitarian aid.

We call on our partners, NGOs and other players in the sector, to commit to this collective dynamic. Pooling is not just an emergency response, it is a strategic lever that can transform our modes of action in the long term and make our sector more resilient. Hulo and its members, including Bioport and Atlas in particular, are ready to support this movement, by providing practical tools and facilitating essential cooperation. In the face of this crisis, it is through collective intelligence and solidarity that we will preserve our ability to act.

 

Pierre Brunet

Writer and humanitarian

Pierre Brunet is a novelist and a member of the Board of Directors of the NGO SOLIDARITES INTERNATIONAL. He became involved in humanitarian work in Rwanda in 1994, then in Bosnia in 1995, and has since returned to the field (Afghanistan in 2003, the Calais Jungle in 2016, migrant camps in Greece and Macedonia in 2016, Iraq and north-eastern Syria in 2019, Ukraine in 2023). Pierre Brunet’s novels are published by Calmann-Lévy: ‘Barnum’ in 2006, ‘JAB’ in 2008, ‘Fenicia’ in 2014 and ‘Le triangle d’incertitude’ in 2017. A former journalist, Pierre Brunet regularly publishes analytical articles, opinion pieces and columns.

Jean-Baptiste Lamarche

Jean-Baptiste Lamarche is CEO and co-founder of Hulo, the first humanitarian cooperative to connect players and innovate in the pooling and optimisation of supply chain resources. He holds an International Executive MBA from HEC Paris and has devoted most of his career to humanitarian logistics. Before founding hulo, Jean-Baptiste held management positions with a number of international NGOs, including Logistics and Information Systems Director for Action Contre la Faim. A committed leader and collaborator, Jean-Baptiste is passionate about innovation as a means of increasing the impact of humanitarian aid.

 

I invite you to read these interviews and articles published in the edition :