What connection could there possibly be between the Estonian city of Narva, on the Russian border, and the upcoming National Humanitarian Conference (CNH) in Paris on October 6, and finally with our journal Défis Humanitaires? There’s no obvious link — and yet there is one!
Media outlets, experts, and governments are reporting serious Russian threats, particularly against the Baltic states and Finland, which may explain why CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow on August 26 by way of Riga, the Estonian capital.
This has to be understood within the context of the war in Ukraine and a broader confrontation between Russia and its allies on one side and the European Union and NATO on the other. Vladimir Putin is raising a new army against Ukraine, intensifying his missile and drone strikes every day, and could be tempted by diversionary, expansionary, or probing maneuvers meant to divide and weaken his opponents.
Has this ongoing process of escalation led President Emmanuel Macron to announce the delivery of the Franco-Italian Aster anti-missile system, and, at the same time, the British to authorize the manufacture in Ukraine of the Franco-British Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missile with French assistance?
Make no mistake: we are in a dangerous and uncertain period of escalation, one that includes Russian tactical nuclear weapons.
Given the dramatic consequences of the war in Ukraine that we already know, we cannot help but be wary of any risk of intensification or geographic spread of the war across Europe.
From Narva to the Suwałki Corridor
I traveled with my family this summer through the Baltic states, and I went as far as Narva, where the Estonian Hermann Fortress stands face to face, across the Narva River, with the Russian fortress of Ivangorod just a few hundred meters away.
Right nearby is the so-called Friendship Bridge, one of the few open crossing points with Russia — Saint Petersburg is only 150 km away — on which the Estonians have placed several rows of anti-tank “dragon’s teeth.” Watch this short video filmed in Narva here :
In a speculative-fiction book published in 2025, La guerre d’après (Grasset), German political scientist and military expert Carlo Masala imagines, in the year 2028, two Russian brigades seizing Narva while simultaneously capturing the island of Hiiumaa, allowing them to blockade the Baltic Sea. It’s only a scenario — but it’s a possible one.
Narva has 57,000 residents, 88% of whom are Russian-speaking, and many of whom hold Russian passports. For reference, Russian-speaking minorities make up roughly 31% of the population in Estonia, 35% in Latvia, and less than 7% in Lithuania, as one learns from Céline Bayou’s excellent book Les pays Baltes face à la menace russe en 100 questions (Tallandier). These Russian-speaking minorities are concentrated along the borders with Russia and Belarus, and in the capitals Tallinn, Riga, and Vilnius.
Comparison isn’t proof, but the parallel with Ukraine’s Russian-speaking populations — whether in Crimea or in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts where the front lines lie — comes immediately to mind.
Traveling through the Baltic states, what strikes you is the presence, everywhere, of Ukrainian flags flying side by side with these countries’ own flags on official buildings.
Likewise, history is very much alive here, especially in the “museums of occupation and freedom,” which draw large numbers of visitors. It’s striking how present the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and its secret protocols — signed on August 23, 1939, in Moscow between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union — remain in people’s minds (notably the partition of Poland and the Soviet military presence in the Baltic states). For the Baltic states, independent and recognized by the League of Nations from 1918 to 1940, German occupation was followed by Soviet occupation from 1944 to 1991, the year they regained independence, now 35 years ago.
In between, for 47 years, these populations endured repression, deportation to the Gulag, summary executions, and ideological servitude, which every family fell victim to in one way or another. They also remember the guerrilla campaign waged from 1944 to 1953 by the resistance movement known as the “Forest Brothers,” 170,000 of whom fought against the Soviet occupation — an occupation that most of the world’s countries never recognized as legitimate.
During this journey, after Narva and Estonia, then Latvia, we reached Lithuania, home to the famous Suwałki Corridor — about 80 km long — which forms the border between that country and Poland. This corridor has the distinction of sitting between the heavily armed Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea and Belarus, Moscow’s ally.
This is a major vulnerability for the West: if Russia seized control of it, the Baltic states would be cut off from the rest of Europe. Every day, information warfare, disinformation, cyberattacks, and sabotage attacks occur — to the point that one could argue a war has already begun. Will humanitarian aid be needed there one day?
Against this backdrop, the position taken by Kaja Kallas — former Prime Minister of Estonia and now the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy — becomes easier to understand.
I also invite you to read, in this issue, our friend Cyprien Fabre’s excellent article “Crises Never Come Alone,” which shows clearly how cracks eventually undermine an entire structure, risking collapse if nothing is done.
Don’t be surprised to learn that NATO is currently strengthening its military resources in response to the Russian threat — even as tourism continues to thrive in the beautiful Baltic states and Finland!
And What About Humanitarian Aid in All This?
While the risk of the war spreading is real, the escalation is, first and foremost, happening in Ukraine today, where humanitarian aid remains an urgent necessity. Other crises abound too — in Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Gaza, and Lebanon — but what’s increasingly lacking is relief itself, as humanitarian funding from too many states keeps declining.
There are moments that call for remobilization, and this is precisely one of them: the upcoming National Humanitarian Conference (CNH), to be held in Paris on October 6 at the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs. The conference is organized by the ministry’s Crisis and Support Centre (CDCS) in coordination with humanitarian actors, under the framework of the Humanitarian Consultation Group (GCH). Don’t miss this opportunity, which will bring together numerous actors and leaders (the European Union, ECHO, the UN, the ICRC, NGOs, and more).
The three main themes chosen for this CNH are:
- International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and access for relief operations.
- UN humanitarian reform and the actors involved.
- Funding and partnerships.
These three major themes should help establish a clear-eyed assessment of the current situation, and above all, launch initiatives to safeguard aid to populations in danger.
There is no humanitarian aid, and no strategy, without the funding that turns it into action. Funding is dropping sharply. The figures speak for themselves, as UN appeals and contributions keep shrinking.
For reference, the UN, through OCHA, launched an appeal for 2026 seeking $23 billion to help 87 million people, while noting that $33 billion would actually be needed to help 135 million people across 50 countries.
According to information available as of August 31, contributions currently stand at $14.21 billion, or 40.6% of a revised appeal of $35.02 billion. In 2025, $23.23 billion was raised. What will this year bring?
As for France, the humanitarian budget across its three channels (CDCS, NUOI, AAP) totals €285 million. It stood at €800 million in 2023, with a commitment made to raise it to €1 billion by 2025. The drop has been steep.
While these figures paint a necessary diagnosis, what matters most now is taking action — communicating, innovating, pooling resources, coordinating, and seeking out solutions and allies. All the more so since institutions like the European Commission, along with a number of states, continue to affirm their humanitarian commitment and are stakeholders in a new humanitarian alternative.
The October 6 CNH cannot, and must not, resemble previous editions, which since 2011 have accompanied a steady rise in French humanitarian aid. This one must mark a genuine turning point and firmly commit to a new direction.
Among the paths identified by humanitarian actors are the following:
- Safeguard current institutional funding.
- Improve efficiency, synergy, coordination, and impact among field actors working for populations in danger.
- Simplify and reform institutional procedures that are too heavy and too costly.
- Strengthen communication and ties with public opinion, lawmakers, young people, the media, think tanks, and businesses.
- Build new, alternative partnerships.
On the subject of new funding sources, you’ll find of interest in this issue a well-documented article and project by our friend Antoine Vaccaro, proposing the creation in France of a Humanitarian Lottery, as already exists in most neighboring countries. It could bring in up to €800 million per year! Here’s a serious avenue worth considering. What will we actually do with it?
We have high expectations for this National Humanitarian Conference, which we will cover live on our YouTube channel and in our upcoming issues.
Meeting Humanitarian Challenges Together
To confront a geopolitical rupture of major scale, and a risk of existential weakening for the humanitarian sector, Défis Humanitaires has decided to rethink its mission — and to do so together with you.
To that end, let’s be very concrete.
We urgently need reliable, useful, constructive, and impactful information. In the face of misinformation and disinformation, which are thriving, serving the public interest is a priority. A recent study shows that while 75% of public opinion supports humanitarian aid, 82% say they want to be better informed!
To meet that need, we propose to:
- Overhaul the journal.
- Broaden and deepen its editorial line.
- Grow its audience, impact, and influence.
To achieve this concretely and quickly, your support is essential and precious. While our journal is independent and free, it has costs, and volunteer work alone isn’t enough. Covering that cost is the essential condition for this new humanitarian mission!
I need your support, and your donation (link to HelloAsso) will make it possible to build this renewed journal together with you. We produce Défis Humanitaires for you, our readers.
With your donation, we also want to broaden our partnerships: editorial partnerships, distribution of the journal, strategic support, grants from foundations, companies, local authorities, and institutions — and the donations from our readers, which are invaluable support for the Défis Humanitaires project. Readers, with your donation, become part of the project starting today (link to HelloAsso)! A big thank you for your donation. (3)
We’ve come full circle; there is indeed a common thread, “links that unite” between the risks faced by the Baltic States and Finland, as well as in Ukraine today with the escalation of the war; the humanitarian response, which is at the heart of the upcoming National Humanitarian Conference; and *Revue Défis Humanitaire*, which here fulfills its role of raising awareness, providing information, making proposals, and mobilizing support? That is its very purpose. Thank you for supporting us with your donation.
Alain Boinet.
(1) La guerre d’après – La Russie face à l’Occident, Carlo Masala, Éditions Grasset.
(2) Les pays Baltes. Face à la menace russe. En 100 questions, Céline Bayou, Éditions Tallandier.
(3) Your donation is tax-deductible in France up to 66% of its amount. A tax receipt will be sent to you in January 2027. Thank you.
Alain Boinet is the president of the association Défis Humanitaires which publishes the online review www.defishumanitaires.com. He is the founder of the humanitarian association Solidarités International of which he was director general for 35 years. Moreover, he is a member of the Humanitarian Consultation Group with the Crisis and Support Center of the Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs, member of the Board of Directors of Solidarités International, of the French Water Partnership (PFE), of the Véolia Foundation, of the Think Tank (re)sources. He continues to go to the field (north-east Syria, Haut-Karabagh/Artsakh and Armenia) and to testify in the media.
Discover other articles from this edition:
- Before the transition, building resilience – Cyprien Fabre
- Charity Lottery: An Idea That Has Been in the Works for Twenty Years—It’s Time to Finally Adopt It – Antoine Vaccaro
- Listen to Afghan women—but above all, hear them – Rayhana Karim and Laure Laroquette
