FEWS Net or famine alert!

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) was created in 1985 by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

It was born in a context marked by severe famines, with a clear objective: to develop tools capable of understanding, analyzing, and anticipating food insecurity phenomena.

Forty years later, FEWS NET has become a pioneering actor and a global reference in the analysis of food crises. Its central role is to provide decision-makers and humanitarian organizations with reliable information, enabling the prevention of famines and the rapid adaptation of responses.

To do this, the network collects and analyzes a wide range of data—climatic, agricultural, economic, and nutritional—which it organizes through a rigorous methodology called scenario development. This forward-looking approach unfolds in eight successive steps :

1. Define the scenario parameters: specify the period and geographical area studied.
2. Describe and classify the current food situation: establish a reference diagnosis.
3. Develop key assumptions: anticipate the evolution of major factors (climate, markets, conflicts, etc.).
4. Analyze the impact on household income sources.
5. Analyze the impact on household food sources.
6. Describe and classify projected food security at the household level.
7. Describe and classify projected food security at the area level.
8. Identify events that could alter the scenario (climatic shocks, political instability, epidemics, etc.).

Thanks to this approach, FEWS NET is able to produce reliable estimates up to six months, or even a year in advance, integrating multiple factors: climatic and weather conditions, conflicts, markets, agricultural production, and trade.

These analyses are published in the form of reports, vulnerability maps, and projections, which support policy-makers and help humanitarian actors on the ground implement targeted interventions.

In 2025, the network celebrates its 40th anniversary, confirming its crucial role in the fight against global food insecurity.

GAZA :

The FEWS NET report of August 22, 2025, is an essential tool for assessing the severity of the food crisis in the Gaza Strip and anticipating its evolution. It relies on the international IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) scale, which classifies food insecurity into five phases. Phase 5, corresponding to famine, is characterized by the combination of three indicators: extreme hunger, acute malnutrition, and high mortality. According to the report, this phase is already observed in the Gaza governorate, and probably in North Gaza, where populations have crossed all critical thresholds.

Situation in North Gaza (~1.06 million people)

In this region, the food crisis is worsened by 22 months of conflict, massive displacements, and the near-total destruction of essential infrastructure. Surveys indicate that 28 to 36% of households are experiencing catastrophic hunger, exceeding the famine threshold. Levels of acute malnutrition among children have crossed the critical 15% threshold, with admissions to treatment centers more than doubling between June and July 2025. Mortality related to hunger and disease is also considered likely to be above the IPC Phase 5 threshold (≥2 deaths per 10,000 people/day). Food aid entry remains extremely limited, bakeries are closed, and community kitchens reach only 10% of the population, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without regular access to food.

Situation in South Gaza (~1.04 million people)

The governorates of Deir al-Balah, Khan Younis, and Rafah are experiencing a situation close to famine, worsened by repeated displacements of over a million people, the collapse of livelihoods, and limited access to food resources. Between May and July 2025, extreme hunger tripled in Deir al-Balah and increased by 50% in Khan Younis, while 22 to 33% of households are in a critical food situation. More than 700 deaths related to food aid were recorded in July, including 390 in the south. Food prices have skyrocketed, with flour costing 200–300 NIS/kg, a 5,000% increase compared to the pre-conflict period. Acute malnutrition among children has doubled since May, reaching up to 12% in some areas. Access to water, sanitation, and healthcare has nearly collapsed, with only six hospitals operational and medical stocks largely depleted. According to projections, mortality related to hunger and disease is expected to cross the IPC Phase 5 threshold by the end of September 2025.

Perspectives :

The FEWS NET report for August confirms that famine is already effective in North Gaza and was imminent in the south. The three criteria of Phase 5—extreme hunger, acute malnutrition, and mortality—are reached or about to be reached in several governorates. Without massive, regular, and secure humanitarian intervention, including food, safe water, and medical care, large-scale human losses are inevitable. The scale of the crisis underscores the urgency of strengthening humanitarian access and coordinating a response to prevent widespread health and food collapse.

News :

Since the publication of the report in August, the situation has taken a new dimension. In September, the United Nations Commission of Inquiry, created in 2021 by the Human Rights Council, concluded that a genocide is underway in the Gaza Strip, committed by Israel. According to the Commission, Israel is responsible for four of the five constituent acts of genocide, as defined by the 1948 Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Among them is the intentional subjection of a group to conditions of existence calculated to bring about its physical destruction, in whole or in part. The famine, orchestrated by Israeli authorities through the blockade of access to food and nutrition, directly illustrates this category.

Funding :

The return of FEWS NET, the world’s leading early warning system for famine, raises as much hope as questions. Suspended for nearly a year due to USAID budget cuts and the reorientation of American foreign aid priorities, this system left a critical gap in the collection and analysis of food security data, depriving humanitarian actors of an essential tool to anticipate and respond to crises. Its redeployment, alongside the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC), should strengthen the detection and forecasting of famine situations in fragile contexts such as Gaza, Sudan, or Haiti.

However, while FEWS NET provides real-time technical expertise and independent projections, its effectiveness remains conditioned on the ability of international aid to be deployed concretely. Yet, in a context of massive cuts to humanitarian funding, both in the United States and globally, the central question remains: even with precise and early diagnosis, will vital resources reach the populations most at risk ?

Esther de Montchalin

Esther de Montchalin is a master’s student in Political Science, specializing in Development and Humanitarian Action, at Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. She is currently the assistant to the founder of Solidarités International and Défis Humanitaires, Mr. Alain Boinet.

Particularly interested in global health issues, access to water, and the fight against malnutrition, she dedicates her research to major contemporary humanitarian challenges and the difficulties faced by vulnerable populations in crisis contexts.