Tribute to Gérard Chaliand

Gérard Chaliand passed away on August 20, 2025, at the age of 91.

A geostrategist, poet, writer, and above all a man of the field whose expertise was rooted in lived experience, knowledge of history and of people, and the freedom to think and act. A man apart, rare, committed, independent, visionary, and one who also knew how to evolve.

We recently visited him in the hospital with Patrice Franceschi, Bernard Kouchner, Khaled Issa, and myself. I had brought his latest book The Great Geopolitical Turning Point (Les Belles Lettres) on which he wrote a few words: “To friendship, always! And to the fight!!”

In tribute to Gérard Chaliand, who gave us so much, we are republishing here an interview published in Défis Humanitaires (text and video), which remains highly relevant today. This text was also included among others in his final book, prefaced by Hubert Védrine, where he introduced our interview with these words: “Alain Boinet is a man of the field who proceeds from experience and not from preconceived ideology. We could only understand one another.”

To understand our world, I invite you to read this interview, watch the video, and read his last book, which stands as a kind of testament Gérard Chaliand left us—a compass to help us find our way in the jungle of international relations.

Alain Boinet

Interview with Gérard Chaliand: what does war teach us or how to understand conflicts?

Emergency humanitarian aid is mainly provided in countries at war due to population displacements, refugees, the wounded and the destruction of infrastructure in countries where States and public services are unable to meet the vital needs of populations at risk on their own.

That is why we called on Gérard Chaliand, a conflict specialist with many years of experience in the field, to answer our questions. From Vietnam to Afghanistan, from the Sahel to the Middle East, addressing tensions in Ukraine between Russia, America and NATO, dealing with nuclear deterrence and humanitarian aid from a historical perspective, it helps us to understand the keys to current conflicts. Decryption that should be useful for more effective humanitarian action.

Alain Boinet: Gérard, in your latest book Pourquoi perd-on la guerre? Un nouvel art occidental, you notice that Western countries have won almost all the foreign wars, colonial wars, between 1830 and 1940 and that they have lost almost all of them since 1945. What are the main factors that explain this reversal between victory and defeat?

Gérard Chaliand: There are a lot of factors. The question can be asked as follows. Why do Europeans generally win in the period from the end of the 18th century to the approach of the Second World War? This is due first of all to the immense superiority brought by industrialization. At the time, it was a leap forward as fantastic as the one we know today with communications. And those opposite didn’t know it and couldn’t explain it.

There was therefore both a technical and institutional advance with the nation-state and in the face of despotism. In Vietnam, for example, we were Tonkinese, or Annamese, or even Cochinese, before being Vietnamese. The advantage was on the side of the Europeans. Not only was there technological superiority in terms of armaments, but the opponent was also divided. He had no outside support and no sanctuary. These are very important things.

A first generation will experience the shock of the sudden expansion of Europeans. The famous clash of civilizations referred to by Samuel Huntington finally occurred in the 19th century. And it was the others who suffered it. What could this first generation bring as an answer? In general, the moral withdrawal among Confucians and the religious withdrawal among Muslims. They hypothesized that the emperor had perhaps lost the mandate from heaven or that the leaders were not pious enough.

However, this was not enough for the second generation who speak the colonizer’s language, English or French. They provide their country with institutions that are totally unknown to them: the political party, a constitution, a parliament.

But this response is still insufficient to retaliate and defend against the European colonizer. It will be necessary to wait for the third generation, the one that emerged after the First World War and will enter the second. This generation then discovered modern nationalism between the First and Second World Wars, with varying variations according to society. A new idea, invented in France in 1792. Then everyone wanted to imitate him. The Germans followed his lead, the Italians created a national movement, the Austro-Hungarian empire was shaken by the national question in 1848, then at the turn of the century it finally reached the Ottoman Empire. In a way, it is a question of turning against the colonizer his own ideology, nationalism. This helps to unite those who are oppressed.

In addition, there will be an extremely accelerating factor. This is the Japanese intervention in Asia. The only state that escapes Europe’s control is Japan. In 1868, Japan escaped the “white peril”, the Meiji revolution[1]. This marks the beginning of a reversal, since there had been no exceptions until then. Then there will be Japan’s victory over the Russians in Manchuria in 1904 and then, at sea, at Tsushima in 1905. The Japanese at the beginning of the Second World War beat the Westerners everywhere: in the Philippines, Burma, Malaysia, and the British stronghold of Singapore fell in 1942. We realize that the yoke can be shaken.

During this period, groups such as Vietnamese, Indonesians and others, mainly Asians, organized themselves through guerrillas. Guerrilla warfare has existed since the dawn of time. It is based on surprise and harassment. It is an irregular warfare, i.e. an opposition from the weak to the strong, designed to weaken a regular army. Clausewitz sees this when he analyses what happened during the Napoleonic period in Spain or Russia.

Gérard Chaliand on the schooner “La Boudeuse” ©Eric Feferberg

Mao, in 1936-1938, innovated with the “revolutionary war”. Revolutionary war is not intended to weaken a regular army, like the guerrillas, but it is intended to seize power. How do you take power? We must mobilize the masses, motivate them, administer the populations as much as possible. It is necessary to slip into the place of the State and discard it, whether it is colonial or local. That is what the Taliban are doing today, for example. Currently, they are the ones who are doing justice. And next to them, the power of Kabul means nothing.

During the 1920s, Soviet advisors told the Chinese communists that the revolution had to be carried out in the city. We need to have an insurrection in Canton and Shanghai. However, they were crushed. The skeleton of the working class was crushed then.

In 1927, Mao discovered, through an investigation, the potential of the poor peasantry that is hungry for land and that can be mobilized. It was from 1934 – 1935, when the prosovietics collapsed, that Mao, on the occasion of this great escape called “the long march”, seized power. For him, it is necessary to work the masses by means of frames. That’s the key. The manager is the one who speaks the local language. Mao trains executives who will slip into the villages. With tenacity and patience, they will explain why they are fighting, who they are fighting for, for whom, what they want, etc. When they feel that they have enough leverage in a village, they organize elections and eject state agents and propose to the villagers to choose themselves who will represent them. There will always have to be a percentage of women in it. This was completely new at the time. Often three men, two women. They will also set up local mixed militias whose role is to inform, inquire and talk about the movement of the regular army. Thanks to this and to the fact that the Japanese invasion will greatly help the Communist Party, which is no longer only in the perspective of a civil war but which is leading a patriotic war.

This is something else that has never been understood in Latin America. The people of Latin America never fought the Americans, they fought “Yankee imperialism”. This did not correspond to anything for a Quechua or Aymara peasant. It must be realized that Bolivian intellectual discourse has no meaning in the Andean environment, in Guatemala, Peru, Bolivia, or Ecuador. What is needed is to blend into the mass using the arguments of patriotic struggle and having an understanding of the situation. It is about turning weakness into strength. This is revolutionary war. Mao succeeds with the Japanese invasion. At the end of the war, the Americans cannot believe that a Mao is seizing power. The English, who were supposed to be even better informed, are equally surprised. And the worst part is that Stalin, facing Mao, advised to make an alliance with Chiang Kai-shek. For Mao, it was out of the question. This is the absolute surprise. Suddenly, a million people become communists. It is a real upheaval.

The people who will best understand this reality are the Vietnamese because they are in direct contact with China. Ho Chi Minh was in China. Vietnamese communists look at, study, and adapt the model to Vietnamese conditions. And the French will be totally surprised to suffer a defeat as important as Dien Bien Phu when it was supposed to be the victory that would finally allow a supposedly less powerful opponent to be crushed in regular combat.

Three years later, in 1957, in the Revue Militaire d’Information, a special issue states: “This is what revolutionary war is all about and we had not understood…”. Mao kind of invented it. This is what I explain in a book that will be published soon: Mao, revolutionary strategist. This model will not necessarily be replicated everywhere in the future.

However, the Maoist revolutionary war has shown that replacing state authority with another works. It is therefore not territorial control that counts, contrary to what Al Baghdadi claims. What matters is population control. For example, Al Baghdadi has never controlled many people, with the exception of Mosul and Raqqa. The media conveyed, through geographical ignorance, that Daech controlled a vast territory like Great Britain, but they did not specify that it was desert. There’s no one there. What matters is the population. The Vietnamese never claimed to control Vietnamese territory. During the day the Americans controlled, at night it was the Viet Cong.

At first, we thought that these power reversals owed everything to Marxism-Leninism, but I think it’s because of ideology in general. We must mobilize through a mobillizing ideology, but any one of them can work. It can be nationalism, patriotism, and now we see it today, it is radical Islamism. I say that without judgment. If people are willing to die for an ideology, then it has a chance to work. In a way, the Taliban are engaged in Maoism without knowing it.

Alain Boinet: Since you have just made an original connection between Afghanistan and Vietnam, this raises a question that is simple to ask but probably difficult to answer. What comparisons and lessons can be drawn between the US-Cano-Vietnamese war and the Soviet war in Afghanistan?

Gérard Chaliand: I would say that they both made the same mistake. First of all, this type of war should not be fought with the contingent. Many Americans went to Vietnam without wanting to. The Russians sent the contingent in the same way. We must not send the contingent into a colonial-type war because, whether we like it or not, it remains a colonial-type war. It is a war in which contempt for others is expressed because they are “late”. This is the first mistake in both powers.

The second is as follows. I will mention another war. In Afghanistan, the Americans paid the northern alliance to operate in the north and “bought” the warlords to do the same in the south. The initial assumption was therefore that they did not want to have victims on their side. That is why Bin Laden or Mullah Omar were able to escape. It is sufficient that they have paid or had knowledge on the spot. Very quickly, the situation was supposed to be resolved. Within a few months, Hamid Karzai[2] had been brought from the United States. We had organized a big Loya Jirga[3]. George Bush had announced the creation of a Marshall Plan that will never be heard from again. The Afghan theatre was “settled” since there was no Taliban left, and those who had not died took refuge in Pakistan. In 2002, the Americans were concerned about one thing only: the intervention in Iraq. They prepared public opinion by referring to the threats of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism, which were false. The idea was then to reshape the Middle East. This is the great task ahead. They want to occupy Iraq to make it a democracy, on the same model as Japan, years ago. Then, it will be necessary to turn to Syria and “twist Bashar al-Assad’s arm” so that he stops helping Hamas and Hezbollah, which will benefit the Israeli ally. “The road to Jerusalem passes through Baghdad.” That was the slogan of the time. And then they would turn to the main opponent: Iran, where the Americans wanted to initiate a regime change. So they attacked Iraq and will wage a zero death war on the American side.

The result is finally disturbing in Iraq. Why? Why?

I’m going to go back and explain it. In 1514, there was a war between the Sunni Ottoman Empire and the Shia Safavid Ottoman Empire. The Iranians are losing. The Ottomans seized the “land of two rivers”[4]. Shia Iraq remains under Sunni control until Saddam Hussein. In 2003, the Americans returned Iraq to Iran because in practice it is the Shiites who rule and the Sunnis who are oppressed. Did Mr. George Bush know that or Mr. Paul Wolfowitz[5], the principal trader? Did Mr. Paul Bremer, proconsul, know? No, no one knew the story. An absence of historical culture therefore has great consequences. These three characters have completely marginalized the Sunnis. At first it was only the Baathists, but then it spread. And it was the Sunnis who were removed from the administration that would later become the pillars of the Islamist state.

Gérard Chaliand in Iranian Kurdistan – 1980 – After a fight between Kurds and the guardian of the Khomeini revolution. The burial of the victims.

Thus, mistakes were made in both periods due to historical misunderstanding and constantly rotating troops – a soldier remains on average one year, unlike the colonial troops of the past who remained for ten years. In short, we are now with troops in transit. That is what McChrystal said in a 2008 report on Afghanistan. He says that 90% of the soldiers never left the base, they ate food directly imported from the United States, did not speak the language, listened to the American mucus. They were soldiers who hoped to earn enough money to pay off a mortgage. McChrystal’s conclusion is that the soldiers are not really in Afghanistan, they are “soldiers in transit”.

The Soviets, on the other hand, entered Afghanistan to replace the hardest part of the Afghan Communist Party. In the past, it would have been called Stalinist. They wanted to carry out agrarian reform, ban forced marriage, send girls to school. This was very badly perceived in Afghanistan. I remember visiting a village where I didn’t see a school. I was told that all the schools had been destroyed because teachers had been sent there. It was unimaginable to entrust young girls to men from the city. We were confronted with the deep conservatism of a society that did not want to change. The Soviets would have liked to transform the country by moving in the direction of coercive modernity. They couldn’t do it. The population refused agrarian reform, refused to obey the city’s hierarchical superiors, and refused to send girls to school. In addition, the population saw the Soviets as foreigners, who were not only non-Muslim, but who were also known to have destroyed mosques. The Americans then sent the Stingers against the Soviets, something that has not happened since the Americans occupied Afghanistan.

AB: 17 years after their failure in Afghanistan, how can we understand the failure of the Western coalition within the framework of NATO and the American leadership against the Taliban and in particular the failure of the counter-insurgency strategy implemented by General McChrystal in order to win hearts and minds to overthrow the situation?

GC: I think that on the western side, we were very quickly obsessed with one thing: not losing a man. The Russians were much more “generous” with their blood than we were. Our public opinion was extremely reluctant. What they wanted was a quick and cheap victory. In what has been done, we must add a very important thing that goes beyond Afghanistan and is the problem today, namely the demographic rise of what was called the “Third World” and the subsequent decline of the West. In 1900, between North America and Russia, there were 33% of the world’s population, a large third. Today, we represent 12 and 15%. When you only represent about ten percent, you can’t afford to lose many lives during the war.

In Western countries, we have an average of 1.5 children per family. Letting your only child go to war causes tensions. In Afghanistan, there were about 15 million of them before the war. And despite the enormous losses during the conflict, they were more than 30 million thirty years later. They had managed to double. This is a demographic reality, but it is not very visible. Indeed, on television or in movies we see mostly “whites”. There is a false impression of a massive presence that does not represent the actual reality.

AB: France is very involved in the Sahel with the Barkhane military force and also within the framework of the G5-Sahel and the Sahel Alliance. In a context of fragile states, extreme poverty, explosive population growth, major problems of terrorism whose action is spreading, does the Sahel not become the epicentre of a new size with multiple challenges?

GC: I don’t know if it’s the epicenter, but one thing is certain: the Sahel is becoming a theatre. Let us go back to the first cause, which is nevertheless the Franco-English expedition, led by the United States, but decided by Mr Sarkozy and Mr Cameron, to intervene in Libya on humanitarian grounds and, in practice, for the elimination of Mr Mohammed Khadafi. He was the man who for the last thirty years controlled the Tuaregs and the situation of migration and arms in the region. His disappearance caused collateral damage as in Mali with the various jihadist or Tuareg movements. France was forced to intervene to avoid the collapse of Bamako. Since what are we trying to do? Contain. There is no question of winning. It is about containing. It is rather poorly contained insofar as the physical French presence is extremely limited.

For those who know a little about African history, the Islamic phenomenon – not Islamist – is older than the colonial period. As early as 1802, the Sokoto empire, even before the slightest European presence, had at its head an Islamist, the Almamy[6], who proclaimed himself to be of the lineage of what we now call Islamism. One of the important vectors in West African Islamism is the Fulani. They too are very important today. Their characteristic is to be Muslims for centuries and at the same time to travel from Senegal to Cameroun. They embrace the entire area known as “French West Africa” of yesteryear. Hence the clashes with the Dogons in particular. Moreover, the propaganda of the Islamists today is to say “we are fed up with France”. For some, these ideas speak for themselves.

We are also in an area of very small development with considerable demographic growth. The number of people under 15 is impressive. What are these young people going to do? Go to school. However, the school cannot follow and there is no work either. The only solution left is war and Islam. It is predation, rape (for some the solution was Islam.)

Gérard Chaliand – Iraqi Kurdistan – 2005 ©Sophie Mousset

AB: In your other book, Le nouvel art de la guerre, published in 2008, you emphasized demographics in international relations and power relations. Africa, which had 230 million inhabitants in 1950, will have 2.5 billion by 2050. While some countries on the continent are struggling with economic growth, others are experiencing recurrent conflicts. Isn’t Africa’s demographic explosion a huge and lasting challenge for the entire continent and its neighbours? What are the risks and what can be done to overcome them?

GC: The areas where there is still extremely vigorous population growth are no longer Latin America, nor is it really the Middle East. Some areas still retain some population growth that creates problems. I am talking about Egypt in particular because only 3% of Egyptian land is cultivable.

At a more global level, there are areas where population development has returned to a relatively normal pace. This is the case for China and India. This is not at all the case in other countries such as Bangladesh. The more people are affected by poverty, the more children there are. It is a classic correlation in demography. So there are some areas like that in Asia and especially in Africa.

Some states in Africa have a good situation. Rwanda, for example, is a country that is not characterized primarily by corruption but by work and modernization. President Kagame is an enlightened despot who makes economic growth. Ghana also has strong economic and labour growth. Ethiopia, perhaps?

South Africa is not doing as well as once hoped. However, the country is still on the right track, which would not have been the case without Nelson Mandela. Mandela’s arrival had something historical about it if you think about it. When he arrived, after all this racism and internal violence, he said that everything had to be erased. This has helped to preserve national unity and the country’s economic potential. How can such an act be explained? There is an explanation. As it happens, Frederik de Klerk[7], the last white president of South Africa, was a Protestant and so was Nelson Mandela.

Apart from these three or four African countries, it is population growth that is driving all economic efforts in Africa. There is a great inability of States to provide education and work to populations. This usually leads to disorder, war and internal religious tensions. It should not be forgotten that part of Africa is not Muslim. There is a part that has been Christianized by a very special type of Christian who are very fighting. These are the American evangelists. So in this area, which extends from Somalia to Senegal and includes Nigeria, we have an extremely difficult situation to deal with and I do not see how we can get out of it. France does not have the necessary troops while, of all the countries, we have the most military agreements to help maintain order in West and North Africa. If there is a rush to get out of Africa, which country will host 300 million Africans? Even Brazil couldn’t handle it….

AB: World geopolitics is in the process of repositioning players: the United States, China, Russia, Turkey, with consequences in the Middle East. Also hides the hypothesis of an end to NATO. This reconfiguration of the world is not without consequences on current political developments, even in Europe. The world is now more unpredictable and dangerous, is it the return of nationalism or of the individual for himself in the international relations that are taking place? In this context, some even mention the possibility of a war between the United States and China, what are the future confrontations?

CG: We lived for several decades in what is called the Cold War with two states each having a sufficient nuclear arsenal to set the planet on fire and blood. In general, deterrence has worked. I speak of “deterrence” in the sense of the ability to strike. This implies that everyone had an armed force large enough to be able to respond in the event of an attack and in a much more terrible way. Each had silos, submarines and aircraft in constant motion, capable of responding to an attack. The result of an attack would therefore be much worse than the gain of the stake for both sides. On that point, I would say that it hasn’t changed much. All states are currently working to try to have the absolute weapon and there are at least three very dangerous states: the United States, Russia and China. We are still in a state of tension. No one has an interest in triggering something because the costs will be huge.

So what has happened since the end of the Cold War? I would say that this marks the end of containment and the beginning of refoulement. The United States’ programme, unspoken and unclaimed, but effective, is to push the former USSR back to the borders of the former Russia. The last act was Ukraine, played in two moves.

The first blow was in 2004 following the announcement of the election results and was a failure. The orange revolution seemed to be happening. Then came a Polish and the Lithuanian Prime Minister. The press then failed to understand why the Lithuanian Prime Minister approved. However, it so happens that part of the united, Catholic Ukraine, dependent on Rome, was in the 17th century Lithuanian and Polish. Putin therefore emerged as a winner from this situation and managed to last ten more years.

Ten years later, the Ukrainians no longer wanted to be under Russian control. What did Poutine do then? He did what any head of state would have done, having lost Ukraine, that is, 40 to 45 million Russian-speaking Slavs, he took over the Crimea that Khrushchev – Ukrainian – had offered to Ukraine in 1954, at a time when the Soviet Union was supposed to last. Putin is an enlightened despot, nationalist and remarkable tactician, even those who do not like him are forced to recognize him. He therefore did what he could to keep the territory of Russia open, hence the intervention in Crimea, hence the intervention in 2008 against the Georgians who thought that the Americans would intervene. Overall, he modernized the army and on the occasion of Syria, which was the last Arab state that had excellent relations with Russia, he did not want to give in. Indeed, Russia had already lost Iraq, South Yemen, and formerly Egypt. That is why he clung to Syria and managed to do much better than the Americans, much better than the West. Finally, the crossing with the militias formed by the Iraqis and the Russian air presence triumphed militarily. I don’t know how the country is going to rebuild itself, that’s another question… We’re staying in an area of sustainable tension.

At the same time, China is outperforming Japan in economic terms in 2010, while specialists were announcing this turnaround for 2020. They are now number two 10 years ahead of schedule. At first, they kept a low profile, now much less so. However, they remain cautious because they know that they are not yet the strongest. For them it is therefore important this relative and completely circumstantial alliance with the Russians. In 1969, however, they had opposed Ussuri[8]. In the 19th century, two and a half million kilometres had also been taken from China by the Russians.

As for Trump, I would say that this is a somewhat unexpected phenomenon. He was not brought to power by populists, he chose to rely on populists. He did it with a quiet cynicism. He lies as he breathes and reminds us brutally that the essence of international relations is not cooperation or multiculturalism but power relations. He is a little rough on everyone, but is he right to be alone against everyone? He is against China, Russia, Europeans… And we Europeans have not been able to say no to him because for years we have been benefiting from the American umbrella.

I think that there are States that feel lost by change, hence these populist shifts… Without nuclear power, there would surely already have been wars with millions of deaths. In European countries, living standards have certainly declined since the 1960s. However, we remain in a privileged and protected space. On a global scale we will probably remain in the top ten. Personally, I do not believe in war in the international arena, I believe in tension. In this respect, it is clear that the media are selling anxiety.

AB: Humanitarian aid is deployed in all countries at war. In the space of a dozen years, its volume has increased from 12 to 28 billion dollars. It involves approximately 400,000 people and 41,000 expatriates, representing people from all over the world. The same is true for development. What do you think of this evolution?

GC: I think there are still very good days left for humanitarian aid because the number of places where tensions are increasing is increasing, whether they are states destabilized by drug cartels such as Mexico, areas of extreme poverty or areas of complete lawlessness. This is generally increasing, i.e. the disorder is not decreasing but is developing. In addition, development areas remain concentrated in some 20 countries. The future is not uncertain but rather relatively dramatic. So these 400,000 people will have an interest in being more numerous and having more resources. They are very useful but insufficient, we should do much better. The same is true for the climate, which poses such a strong threat. And as long as there is such a demographic increase with so few resources to deal with it, we will continue to witness this degradation.

Biography of Gérard Chaliand, geopolitologist, specialist in armed conflicts and poet.

After studying at the Institut national des langues et civilisations orientales (INALCO, Paris), Gérard Chaliand obtained a doctorate in Political Sociology with a thesis on Revolutions in the Third World, myths and perspectives (Paris V – Sorbonne). Engaged in the far left in the 1970s, Gérard Chaliand participated in the struggle for the decolonization of Guinea-Bissau alongside Amilcar Cabral.

A specialist in geostrategic issues, Gérard Chaliand has spent more than thirty years in some 75 countries in Africa, Asia and America, from which he has drawn a series of surveys and tests. A man in the field above all, he has been in contact with several national liberation movements: Guinea-Bissau 1966; North Vietnam 1967; Colombia 1968; Jordan/Israel 1969-1970; Eritrea 1977; Iranian Kurdistan 1980; Afghanistan 1980, 1982 and every year from 2005 to 2011; El Salvador 1982; Peru 1985; Philippines 1987; Sri Lanka 1987, 1999, 2007; High Karabagh 1993; Georgia 1992, 2008; Kashmir 1999; Iraq including Iraqi Kurdistan 1999 and every year from 2000 to 2016; Burma 1990. He is one of the major specialists in irregular wars, with the originality of having always been on the side of insurrection rather than counter-insurrection in his research. He discusses his field investigations in Voyage dans 40 ans de guérillas (1966-2006).

From 1980 to 1989, Gérard Chaliand was a lecturer at the École nationale d’administration (ENA), then a teacher at the École supérieure de guerre (1993-1999) and director of the Centre européen d’étude des conflits (1997-2000). He is also an advisor to the Centre d’analyse et de prévision of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs (1984-1993). He is a regular guest professor at many foreign universities (Harvard, Montreal, Berkeley,…). Gérard Chaliand is the author of more than 30 books, including about fifteen translated ones. In 1983, they worked with Jean-Pierre Rageau with his Atlas géopolitique a transformé les visions géographiques du monde hitherto resulting from Mercator’s representations. In addition, with his book Global Anthology of Strategy, he proposes to incorporate for the first time non-Western strategic thoughts into the usual Western-centric corpus.


[1] The end of the feudal Shogun regime and one of the major events in Japanese history.

[2] He succeeded Burhanuddin Rabbani as head of the Islamic State of Afghanistan on 22 December 2001.

[3] The Loya Jirga is a term of Pashto origin that refers to an assembly convened to make major decisions concerning the Afghan people.

[4] Former name of Iraq.

[5] American politician, Assistant Secretary of Defense between 2001 and 2005.

[6] Almamy is the “Commander of the Believers”. This title was used in the XVIIIᵉ and XIXᵉ centuries by Muslim warlords from several Fulani states in West Africa.

[7] Frederik Willem de Klerk was South Africa’s last white president and led the reforms that ended the apartheid policy in 1991 and the constitutional negotiations with the African National Congress in Nelson Mandela that led to the country’s first multiracial government.

[8] Part of the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict. A series of armed incidents between the Soviet Union and China, particularly around an island on the Ussuri River that brought these two states to the brink of nuclear war.

The Middle East on fire

Interview with Antoine Basbous, Director of the Arab Countries Observatory.

Antoine Basbous has been the director of the Arab Countries Observatory for nearly thirty years. On his website, there is a map delimiting his field of investigation, which goes from Kabul to Casablanca, with the Maghreb, the Middle East and the Gulf countries at the centre. Our interview focuses on the epicentre of the crisis, its humanitarian consequences and the geopolitical developments which, according to him, are reconfiguring the entire Middle East today.

Soldiers walk through ruins in Yarmouk, Syria. COMAR SNADIKI/REUTERS

Alain Boinet. Syria has just passed the 10-year mark of war with dramatic consequences for its population, which out of 22 million inhabitants now has more than 13 million people in need of humanitarian aid and over 5.6 million refugees. Let’s go back to the beginning of the conflict to understand: how could Western leaders have been so wrong in betting on the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime? How could countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia or Qatar support a rebellion, at first moderate, which then turned into Islamist jihadist groups like Al Quaida and Daech?

Antoine Basbous. This question is vast. To tell the truth, the unpopularity of Bashar’s regime was already the result in 2011 of 41 years of absolute power (30 years for his father, 11 for him) of a dynasty that has given only tears, blood and repression to this country. Many analysts had thought that the fruit was ripe, as Ben Ali had fallen in Tunisia, Mubarak in Egypt, and a little later Gaddafi in Libya and Saleh in Yemen – and therefore that Assad could also fall. But they ignored, or at least did not take sufficiently into account, three factors:

  • The first was that Assad Sr. had built a regime with some 15 intelligence services, which monitored the breathing of the population. Having come to power through a coup d’état, Hafez did not want to be a victim in his turn! The security structure of the regime meant that, despite its unpopularity, it had a very powerful security net.
  • The second phenomenon is that no one took sufficiently into account the degree of Iranian involvement. The Islamic Republic considers the Alawite regime in Damascus as a branch of Shi’ism and above all as an ally that will allow the creation of this “Shi’ite crescent” from the Caspian to the Mediterranean and that is an essential step to consolidate Hezbollah’s hold over Lebanon. Iran’s involvement was total: penniless, under sanctions, able to export little, it nevertheless devoted billions to this theatre, put the soldier Assad on a drip and sent Hezbollah to save him.
  • Despite all this involvement, despite the support of the Shiite internationalist brigades hired by Iran, the regime nevertheless nearly collapsed in 2015. Assad’s hometown, Qardaha, was receiving short-range missiles, so the enemy was less than 20 km away from the last stronghold! This is when the third phenomenon came into play: Russian support. The commander of the Iranian expansionist forces, General Qassem Soleimani, went to Moscow, met Vladimir Putin and told him: “this will not be your new Afghanistan, we will be the foot soldiers who control the terrain but we cannot act without the air force”. From then on, at the end of August 2015, Putin sent his air force and entered the war in the most direct way possible, after having provided Assad, throughout the crisis, with arms, ammunition and experts.

These are the three secrets of the maintenance of this regime, which today remains under the perfusion of its two sponsors, even if they no longer get along and are rivals. Indeed, Russia does not want the Alawite regime in Syria to put itself totally at the service of Tehran; Putin moreover turns a blind eye to the daily Israeli bombings against Iranian bases and those of its satellites. Israel moves freely in Syria’s airspace. In 2020, it carried out nearly 500 strikes while Russia maintains S-300 and S-400 missile batteries there, but has never threatened or shot down an Israeli plane. Moscow thus lets Israel act against its rival ally, Iran and the Shiite militias, but does not want the Assad regime to collapse.

Tehran, for its part, has invested in the Syrian social fabric: many people have been converted to duodecimal Shiism, Shiite schools have been created, and “colonies” have been built (on strategically well placed and rehabilitated sites, the Iranians install their men, like platforms). For example, there is the Shiite shrine of Saida Zeinab in south-east Damascus, which has now become a colossal military base as well as a base for the Shiite International. In 2016, Assad endorsed this state of affairs by declaring that “Syria [belonged] to the fighters who defended it”, which was intended both to delegitimise the Sunnis who had fled the country and to legitimise the foreign Shiite fighters “imported” by Iran…

Finally, we must not forget that when the population took to the streets, without any communitarian, Islamist or sectarian slogan, Assad released all the jihadists who were in his prisons and supplied them with arms and ammunition. His Iranian allies supported him by freeing 1500 jihadists from Iraqi prisons in August 2012 and letting them cross 800 km of desert to join their “brothers” in Syria. This manoeuvre profoundly transformed the protest by militarising and Islamising it. Assad was thus able to present himself to the West by saying: “Look, do you prefer a President with a blond woman who wears a three-piece suit, or these bearded men? “. Civil society found itself marginalised – indeed, Obama said at the time, “Who are these people on the street? They are teachers, university professors, doctors, pharmacists, workers, farmers… Will they know how to run the political affairs of the country? “The only choice that seemed to remain was between the bearded men and the dictator.

DH. In Syria today, the situation seems to be blocked militarily in the north-west and north-east and there is no political solution for the moment. Turkey has taken control of Syrian territories with the support of its Islamist allies and Daech is reorganising. What is the next step: a lasting status quo, a precondition for new fighting or a political solution?

AB. I believe that this country is frozen and divided between several occupants. There are obviously the Russians, the Iranians, and the whole Shiite jihadist international that they have brought with them. There are the Turks, there are the Americans east of the Euphrates who support the Kurds to some extent and protect their hydrocarbon deposits; and the last force present is Israel, which occupies the air space.

The Turkish army near the Syrian border. ©Delil SOULEIMAN / AFP

Assad, despite his seat at the United Nations, is reduced to a “little baron of nothing”. He has lost the war, cannot promise anything, and runs a country under sanctions in which bread, petrol, medicines, foreign currency are rarely to be found… a country that is totally disastrous, especially after the entry into force of the “Caesar law” in the United States (June 2020), because nobody dares to trade with it. As for the oil and agricultural resources, they are mainly to be found among the Kurds to the east of the Euphrates…

DH. Lebanon found itself on the humanitarian front line by hosting more than 1,200,000 Syrian refugees for a Lebanese population of 6.6 million. Today Lebanon is itself facing a serious political crisis and a paralysis of the banking system that is plunging more and more Lebanese into extreme poverty, vulnerability and anger. While the explosion in the port of Beirut mobilised a great deal of solidarity, the International Conference in Support of Beirut and the Lebanese People is finding it very difficult to give concrete aid due to the blockages of the Lebanese political class. Doesn’t this crisis risk degenerating in the absence of any solution that is equal to the risks?

AB. This country is really going through hell: the first reason is that there is a mafia-like political class that has governed it for so many years and that has impoverished it to enrich itself. The “DNA”, the “software” of this country is totally out of order, it has no immunity anymore, today it is a country colonised by a pro-Iranian militia that controls everything. In the window, there is a Christian President of the Republic, but this President is at the orders of this militia and he anticipates its desires, its needs and its intentions. Finally, there is no more government, it is a total blockage. The country is collapsing, Hezbollah controls not only the air, sea and land borders of the country, but also the administration, the government, the finances… Nothing disturbs its control and we are witnessing a strategy of killing Lebanon in its current formula, so that it can be reborn one day at the hand of Hezbollah as an Iranian colony.

In reality, there is no longer any hope: this country, which in 2020 will celebrate its first centenary within its current borders, is in agony. Never have the Lebanese experienced such a dramatic situation. Today, even if you have millions of dollars in your bank account, you can’t access them. The country is officially bankrupt since March 2020. People are going to run out of electricity because Lebanon has no foreign currency to buy fuel. And when you don’t have electricity, you don’t have a fridge, you don’t have a phone, you don’t have lighting… It’s difficult to describe this country because it’s so bad, it’s a fall into hell without a parachute. All the elites who could have left have done so or are doing so, it is a humanitarian disaster at the gates of Europe.

Explosion at Beirut port, August 2020 ©Mohamed Azaki/REUTERS

DH. As in Syria, the situation is dramatic for the Lebanese population and this implies that massive and direct humanitarian aid must be mobilised. Following the major demonstrations in 2019 and in the absence of any perspective, is there not a risk that the situation will degenerate and become chaotic?

AB. On 17 October 2019, there was a cross-community movement, a national movement with the slogan “everyone, that means everyone, must leave”. This meant that the entire political class had to be swept away, whatever their reference, religion or community. But this movement was torpedoed by Hezbollah, which tore out the Shiites and in a way “communitarised” it, split it up and weakened it. Even if there were Shiites in it, the majority was abused by Hezbollah and the demonstrations in the Shiite areas were repressed. There were deaths and injuries. The message was clear: “the leadership is us, and we will decide, you go home”. Last February, the Shiite intellectual and Hezbollah critic Lokman Slim was coldly assassinated. The cross-community movement is finding it hard to move, to exist, to express the fed upness of the whole population.

I am sure that famine will not be tolerated, that people will go out into the streets and demand accountability. The solution envisaged by the political class is to give these Lebanese who were proud, generous, rich – there was an extremely dense middle class in this country – a food card. This is buying social peace at the expense of the World Bank.

But this country will not reform. International aid has been useless, the political class that reigns today is getting rich through grand corruption and does not want to change, because it means losing its privileges and being accountable to the donor community (World Bank, IMF, Arab and Gulf countries). The electricity sector, for example, represents 60% of the Lebanese public debt, yet there are only a few hours of electricity per day. And even then, it is produced by Turkish ships, which allows those who run this sector to get richer every day. The donors – the Arabs in the first place – no longer want their money to fall into the hands of Hezbollah. It is clear that the political class, under the orders of the Shiite militia, will not take any steps towards reform.

Humanitarian aid in Bourj-Hammoud, Lebanon, August 2020. SOLIDARITES INTERNATIONAL

DH. In the conflicts in the region, minorities are particularly affected, if not targeted, whether they are Christians, Yezidis, Kurds… What special protection should they be given?

The only protection that counts is the one that comes from culture. As soon as Sunnis and Shiites tolerate each other and live together, the culture will have accepted that we can be different and still be friends. But if Shiites and Sunnis continue to kill each other as they do today, I don’t see how minorities can be protected.

Nevertheless, I note that the new American President seems sensitive to the causes of minorities. When he was a US Senator and Vice President, Biden made 24 trips to Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. In his constituency, there are also many Greek Americans, which may explain his firmness against Erdoğan. He has also acknowledged the Armenian genocide, another historically mistreated minority in this region. Will he go further to comfort the minorities in the region?

DH. The reading grid that seems to impose itself is that of the confrontation between Sunnism and Shiism, which has resulted in the rapprochement between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and even Saudi Arabia with Iran. At the same time, Turkey is trying to take the leadership of the Sunni world and the Iranian nuclear conference is resuming. How do you see this situation?

AB. The Sunni-Shiite confrontation dates back fourteen centuries and is not going to subside, especially since Iran, in the name of Shiism, has exported the Islamic Revolution to the entire region from the Caspian to the Mediterranean. This “Shiite crescent” includes Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah’s Lebanon and Yemen, which allowed the advisor to the President of the Islamic Republic to declare that Iran already controls 4 Arab capitals! With this hegemony, Iran frightens the Arabs; they are on the defensive while Iran is gaining on their territories. This explains the rapprochement between Israel and several Gulf countries.

These countries have given up on the Palestinian cause saying that it has no future, that the fight is sterile. With the American withdrawal from the region initiated by Obama, they said they had to join forces with other regional powers, and Israel is perceived in the Gulf as a real power that can actually prove to be a solid partner with significant support in Washington.

However, the Gulf countries have forgotten that Israel lost its last war against Hezbollah on its doorstep (2006). The Hebrew state received on the last day of the conflict the same number of missiles from the Shiite militia as on the first day! All its air campaign failed to silence Hezbollah. If Iran tomorrow starts launching missiles at the United Arab Emirates’ skyscrapers, their desalination plants or their strategic sites, I can’t see Israel providing real all-risk insurance for countries that are nearly 2,000 km from its borders…

DH. In this context, what changes can we expect between the Trump administration’s “America first” and the Biden administration’s “America is back”, when we have the feeling that the American priority is now China and that the time of Western armed interventions seems to be behind us?

U.S. President Joe Biden delivers a speech on his plan to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan, at the White House in Washington April 14, 2021. Andrew Harnik/Pool via REUTERS

AB. European disengagement dates back to the late 1950s, in the aftermath of the Suez campaign. Following this military success, which was nevertheless a diplomatic defeat, the Americans replaced the Europeans in the region. The American involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq was not very successful, despite the military success of the early days. These long conflicts have sapped the morale of the army and the state coffers. And at the end of George W. Bush’s term, there was a sense of disengagement, of being fed up with the region. Obama confirmed this by moving closer to Iran, and Trump has continued the American withdrawal while marking his passage with a coup d’état, the assassination of Iranian general Soleimani in January 2020.

Biden, on the other hand, has cultivated a better knowledge of the region and the turmoil of its history thanks to his long career as a senator interested in international affairs, then as Obama’s vice-president. He is certainly in favour of a slightly more controlled disengagement that does not totally sacrifice the Kurds. Where Trump had dropped northern Syria and the Kurds to Erdoğan after a flattering phone call, Biden is unlikely to let that happen. But indeed, the US disengagement from the region in order to give priority to China is an undeniable reality.

DH. How should we interpret the recognition of the Armenian genocide by the President of the United States, Joe Biden, in the context of Turkish expansionism, from Syria to Libya, from the Eastern Mediterranean to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh?

An Armenian demonstration outside the Turkish ambassador’s residence on the 106th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide in Washington, D.C., on April 24, 2021. ©AFP

AB. First of all, Biden has never carried Erdoğan in his heart. He is very close to his Greek constituents, knows a bit of history and is familiar with Erdoğan’s manipulations, his ambitions, his desire to reconstitute the Ottoman Empire and his meddling abroad. It is true that the year 2020 has been a good one for the Turkish president. He has met with success in Syria against the Russians, as well as in Libya against Haftar and Wagner’s Russian mercenaries. His drones have taken away successes on the battlefield and they have also been successful in Nagorno-Karabakh on behalf of Azerbaijan. Erdoğan tried to intimidate Europe, with some success, and launched his exploration ships into the disputed areas of the eastern Mediterranean. On the other hand, he was banking on Trump’s success because he knew his “software”: Trump likes flattery, strong men, small dictators… but as soon as Biden was elected, we saw Erdoğan change his tone. He immediately softened his rhetoric in relation to Europe, in relation to France, he withdrew his prospecting boats from the eastern Mediterranean and at the same time he showed himself to be very understanding, less threatening on the issue of migrants, which he had always instrumentalised.

He was right to fear Biden: the latter’s first phone call, more than three months after taking office, was to announce 2 unpleasant things to him: first that he was going to recognise the Armenian genocide, and second that Turkey was excluded from the F-35 programme in which it was a partner. For Erdoğan, this is a hard blow in an economic context that continues to deteriorate in Turkey. The pound continues to fall, and the country is on its third central bank governor in two years, unemployment is climbing, the pandemic is hurting badly… The rocky relations with Moscow and the sale of Turkish drones to Ukraine have moreover pushed Putin to decide not long ago that he would no longer let Russian tourists come to Turkey. Finally, many of Erdoğan’s lieutenants have left him to create rival formations and in the last elections, i.e. the 2019 municipal elections, all the major cities in Turkey switched to the opposition. These elements paint a Turkish context today that is very gloomy for Erdoğan.

Armenians take part in a torchlight procession in Yerevan on April 23, 2021, on the 106th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. Karen MINASYAN /AFP

DH. France has committed itself by supporting the Kurds in Syria. It is almost the only country that has opposed Turkey head-on in the eastern Mediterranean, notably with the sale of Rafales to Greece, but also, in another register, through its support for Lebanon. How do you understand this French policy? What role can France usefully play in this region?

AB. France is helping the Kurds in Syria who control the largest prison for jihadists, which holds over a thousand French jihadists. Paris has not forgotten the contribution of the Kurds in Syria and Iraq to the defeat of Daech, unlike Trump. This is to its credit. It is also in its interest to support this effective ally, always ready to fight Daech.

As for the hegemony that Erdoğan wanted to exercise in the eastern Mediterranean, it is true that without France he would not have encountered significant opposition. NATO anaesthetised by Trump and Germany too obsessed with managing its own Turks, allowed Erdoğan to push his advantages. France thus took the lead in mobilising southern Europe around Greece and Cyprus, dragging in Arab powers as well, including the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates participated with its military aviation in recent manoeuvres in the Mediterranean. Paris also supports the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF), a coalition set up by Egypt, Israel, Cyprus and Greece to contain Turkish hegemony by setting up cooperation between gas-producing countries for joint marketing. But the issue is also to remind Erdoğan that the Mediterranean is not a field of manoeuvre for Turkey.

Finally, there are international conventions (Montreux, Montego Bay…) that prevent Turkey from creating faits accomplis, claiming and exercising its hegemony over areas that do not belong to it. Without France’s leadership in this operation, Erdoğan would have already advanced his pawns to challenge international law – as he did via the November 2019 agreement with Libya, which so expands Turkey’s exclusive economic zone that it joins Libya’s and encroaches on the waters of other riparians, including Egypt, Cyprus and Greece. This large-scale operation was aimed at controlling the maritime space of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beirut after the explosion at the port on 4 August 2020.

DH. To conclude, what are your final words?

AB. We live in a world that is becoming more and more fluid and uncertain. We need more than ever to be upright and have the means to act or react to defend our interests. Although suffering from the wear and tear of his power and major difficulties, Erdoğan is pursuing an offensive policy and charging into the “soft bellies” of his neighbourhood (Libya, Syria, Iraq, the Caucasus, the Eastern Mediterranean). He will continue his policy until he meets resistance. Thus, the ideology of Islamist terrorism continues to progress on all continents, even if its geographical expression has failed each time it has been realised.

Antoine Basbous, Arab Countries Observatory

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Who is Antoine Basbous ?

Antoine Basbous is a political scientist and specialist in the Arab-Islamic world and Islamist terrorism

In 1991, he founded the Observatoire des pays Arabes (OPA) in Paris, which he has been running ever since. It is a completely independent consultancy specialising in North Africa, the Middle East, the Gulf and the Islamic world in general.

Antoine Basbous was born in Lebanon, where he studied law and French literature. In France, he obtained a doctorate in political science and a DEA in Information and Communication. He worked as a journalist from 1975 to 1987 in Beirut and then in Paris.

Antoine Basbous has published several essays translated into different languages, including Guerres secrètes au Liban, Editions Gallimard, 1987; L’Islamisme, une révolution avortée? Editions Hachette, 2000; L’Arabie saoudite en question, du wahhabisme à Bin Laden, Editions Perrin, 2002. In September 2004, an updated version of the latter work was published in paperback by Tempus under the title L’Arabie saoudite en guerre; Le tsunami arabe, Editions Fayard, 2011.

He is consulted by the largest companies, governments and courts in Europe and North America, and regularly participates in debates on the crises that are shaking the Arab and Islamic worlds, on terrorism and on the relations between Islam and the West.