Generosity – Between stagnation and transformation: how macro-economics is rebuilding philanthropy

French philanthropy is going through a zone of silent turbulence. The amounts collected seem relatively stable, the sector continues to mobilize, and the solidarity momentum of the French remains undeniable. But this apparent stability masks a profound structural transformation: generosity is eroding in constant euros, becoming sociologically polarized and being redirected patrimonially, under the direct effect of a degraded macro-economic environment.

Contrary to an idea that is still widespread, France is neither among the most generous countries in Europe nor in absolute value nor in relative value worldwide. According to the World Giving Index 2024[1], only 46% of the French declare having made a monetary donation, compared to 59% on average in Europe, placing our country in the lower half of contributing nations. This reality invites us to look lucidly at the real capacity for philanthropic mobilization and therefore to examine what the economy does to donations.

Because in philanthropy as elsewhere, macro-economics is not a backdrop: it is the engine.

United States: when growth mechanically feeds philanthropy

Since 2023, the United States has experienced an exceptionally favorable dynamic[2]:

robust growth (+4% in Q3 2025),
record corporate profits (+16.8% in Q3),
stock markets driven by AI and tech,
dynamic consumption, supported by the wealth effect,
Federal Reserve monetary policy entering a cycle of gradual easing.

On the American philanthropic side, the effect is direct.
According to Giving USA 2024[3], donations increase by +6.3% in nominal terms and +3.3% in real terms, reaching 557 billion dollars, a level without equivalent in the world.

The link is mechanical:

bullish markets => rising wealth => rising major gifts,
solid economic cycle => smoother and higher donations.

But two institutional factors, specific to the American system, massively amplify this phenomenon.

A quasi-total testamentary freedom

American law is based on testamentary freedom.
Unlike continental Europe, there is no hereditary reserve protecting children: one can bequeath 100% of one’s assets to a philanthropic organization.

The consequence is radical:
=> very large American patrimonial donations reach amounts impossible in Europe.

An extreme concentration of donated amounts

The United States experiences a strong concentration of very high-value giving
=> a disproportionate share of amounts comes from a small number of ultra-wealthy donors, via principal gifts, DAFs (Donor Advised Funds) and family foundations.

This phenomenon is not reproducible in Europe, where inheritance rules and the average level of wealth limit the amplitude of large gifts.

Euro zone: controlled disinflation, but sluggish growth and unfavorable ground for giving

The Richelieu–Hugau macro-economic report is explicit: the Euro zone is experiencing effective disinflation, back around 2%, but at the cost of weak growth and a structural weakening of economic potential.

The following elements characterize the situation:

sluggish growth (+0.2% in Q3-2025),
lasting weakness of industry,
technological lag,
high energy costs,
budgetary consolidation in member states,
gradual rise in long-term rates.

For European households, this means:

compressed purchasing power,
high precautionary savings,
political uncertainty weighing on confidence,
defensive trade-offs between consumption and donation.

French philanthropy thus evolves in a macro-economic context that mechanically weighs on giving, far more than in the American model.

French generosity: nominal stability, real decline

The France Générosités barometers 2023–2025[4] converge:

+1% to +2% in current euros,
-2% to -4% in constant euros,
continuous contraction in the number of donors,
collapse of donations < €50,
progressive disengagement of contributing middle classes.

In short:
=> Generosity is not collapsing: it is eroding.
=> Not for lack of solidarity, but because of economic constraint.

This is philanthropic stress, not a crisis of generosity.

Polarization: a landscape that concentrates at the top

The macro environment induces a double structuring movement.

a) Small donations are declining

Food inflation, energy, housing: constrained expenditures absorb room for maneuver.

b) Large donations become pro-cyclical

Wealthy households synchronize their donations with:

market performance,
the tax climate (and notably among retirees),
political stability.

c) Direct debit: the stabilizer of the sector

Nearly 45% of collections now come from regular donations:
=> this is the backbone of the system’s resilience.

The future of giving: wealth, not income

In a low-growth economy, income can no longer support the progression of donations. The future engine is patrimonial.

According to the study of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation (Fourquet & Gariazzo)[5], France is preparing for a historic patrimonial transition:

€9,000 billion will be transferred by 2035–2040,
that is €450 to €600 billion per year,
of which around €2 billion/year could be directed toward associations and foundations.

The growth relays are identified:

bequests,
philanthropic life insurance,
donations of securities and assets,
hosted funds and shareholder foundations,
temporary donation of usufruct.

The shift is clear:
=> Weak growth = stagnation of income-based donations
=> Abundant wealth = expansion of legacies and gifts

The engine of French philanthropy over the next twenty years will be transmission, not salary.

An indispensable detour: the critical situation of French and European NGOs

French and European NGOs are today undergoing a double cyclical shock.

Brutal contraction of international public funding

Since 2023–2024:

reduction of USAID envelopes (Bureau Humanitarian Assistance),
contraction of ECHO humanitarian funding,
reorientation or reduction of external aid in several European countries,
French funding (AFD, MEAE) becoming more targeted, more political, more normative.

For NGOs whose budgets may depend 40 to 60% on these sources, the shock is potentially existential.

Simultaneous weakening of public donations

The contraction of small and medium-sized donations hits international solidarity NGOs first (development and to a lesser extent “emergency” organizations).

They lose their double shock absorber:
=> institutional funding in retreat,
=> public fundraising under strain.

For some, this creates a real cliff, for others a slow but continuous structural decline.

Only those that manage to:

diversify their funding,
invest in patrimonial philanthropy,
modernize their donor relations,
strengthen their transparency and financial expertise,

will escape a lasting shrinkage.

Conclusion. French philanthropy is not declining: it is changing engines

The French philanthropic landscape is not on the way to extinction.
It is undergoing profound recomposition.

Under macro-economic constraint, it becomes:

more patrimonial,
more concentrated,
more demanding,
more technical,
more sensitive to economic and political cycles.

The question is no longer:
“Are the French giving less?”
but:
“Is the sector ready for a philanthropy structured by transmission, the economy and financial sophistication?”

Antoine Vaccaro.