United Nations World Population Prospects 2024 UNDSA
Défis Humanitaires presents here a summary of the report by the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) “World Population Prospects 2024”. Demography is a key issue for our magazine, which explains the subtitle of our Humanitarian Challenges logo: In a world of 10 billion people.
Indeed, the increase of 2 billion additional human beings on our planet, from 8.2 billion today to 10.3 billion in 2080 according to the UN, will not be without consequences for territories, populations, climate, biodiversity, pollution, resources of water, energy and consumer products, and migratory movements,
For Sub-Saharan African countries in particular, this represents a colossal challenge, particularly in terms of education, employment, adaptation to climate change, housing and infrastructure. This demographic crisis calls for permanent and effective mobilization, with the aim of anticipating tensions in order to curb them. It also requires our solidarity and international cooperation to match the stakes.
I. The Context of Global Demographic Change
The World Population Prospects 2024 report published by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) provides an in-depth analysis of global demographic trends by revising projections of world population, fertility rates, mortality and international migration. This report is a continuation of UNDESA’s regular publications since 1951, providing historical and prospective monitoring of demographic trends. The main finding of the report is that the world’s population, currently estimated at 8.2 billion, will peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before gradually declining to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
This change marks a significant transition from previous projections, when world population growth seemed to be more sustained. The downward revision is essentially the product of the faster-than-expected decline in fertility rates, particularly in some of the world’s largest nations, such as China.
The fact that the world population peak is expected to occur earlier and at a lower level than previously thought is important for several reasons. First, it signals the end of the current era of rapid population growth, which began around 1800 in some regions and in the mid-twentieth century globally (United Nations, 2021). Second, since population growth tends to amplify environmental pressures by increasing total economic demand, it has implications for progress towards a more sustainable future, since overall demand for food, shelter, infrastructure and services, among other things, is likely to be lower if the world’s population peaks earlier and at a lower level.
II. World Population: Growth, Peak and Decline
The report highlights that the world has experienced a period of rapid population growth over the last two centuries, a trend which, although still present, is beginning to slow down. This growth is largely due to the demographic transition – a process that involves a reduction in mortality, followed by a fall in fertility, while increasing average life expectancy. However, it is important to note that countries are going through this transition at different speeds. While some, notably in Europe and East Asia, have already seen their populations peak and begin to decline, others, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia, are still experiencing rapid population growth. According to the report, one in every four people in the world lives in a country whose population has already peaked.
According to the report’s projections, the world’s population will peak at around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s. This projection takes into account a number of factors such as birth rates, mortality and international migration. The slowdown in population growth is mainly due to a faster than expected decline in fertility rates in many parts of the world. For example, China, once the world’s most populous nation, has seen its population begin to decline as a result of birth control policies and a transition to an ageing population. After peaking in 2080, the world’s population is expected to begin a gradual decline. This decline is expected to occur mainly in regions of the world where fertility is already below the replacement level (2.1 children per woman), which is the level needed to keep the population stable without migration. The report predicts that by the end of the 21st century, the world’s population could fall to around 10.2 billion.
The fact that the world population peak is expected to occur earlier and at a lower level than predicted is important for several reasons. Firstly, it signals the end of the current era of rapid population growth, which began around 1800 in some regions and in the mid-twentieth century worldwide. Secondly, population growth increases environmental pressures by increasing global economic demand. This impacts on progress towards a sustainable future, as a world population peaking earlier and at a lower level would likely lead to reduced demand for resources such as food, housing, infrastructure and services.
III. Uneven population growth
The report highlights major divergences in demographic trends between different regions of the world, reflecting different economic, social and cultural contexts. According to the report, countries can be classified according to their stage of demographic transition. In other words, they are classified according to their proximity to their peak.
3.1. Countries whose population has already reached a peak
By 2024, 63 countries and territories, representing 28% of the world’s population, had already reached a demographic peak. This includes nations such as China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation. These countries are experiencing what is sometimes called ‘ultra-fertility’, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman in her lifetime. They will therefore see their populations gradually decline over the coming decades due to a combination of low birth rates and an ageing population. In China, for example, the one-child policy in force for several decades has drastically reduced the birth rate. The rapid ageing of the population, combined with a persistently low fertility rate, should lead to a significant decline in the population in the years to come. This rapid population decline in some contexts may pose a challenge, requiring innovative policy responses to address the potential macroeconomic, labour market, employment, social protection and national security consequences. By 2100, China is expected to have lost more than half of its current population and to have returned to a population size comparable to that recorded at the end of the 1950s.
3.2. Countries with projected population growth
Conversely, 126 countries and territories, mainly located in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and parts of Oceania, will see their populations continue to grow until at least 2054, if not beyond. These regions are characterised by high fertility rates and relatively young populations. This group includes some of the world’s most populous countries: India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the fertility rate remains well above the replacement level, with rates of up to 4 children per woman in countries such as Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia.
According to the report, the populations of nine countries, including Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger and Somalia, are likely to grow exponentially, with populations doubling or more between 2024 and 2054. More than a fifth of the projected increase in the world’s population between 2024 and 2054 is expected to be concentrated in these nine countries. As a result of this rapid growth, the ranking of the world’s most populous countries is likely to change: Pakistan, followed by Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo, will overtake the United States in terms of population, and the United Republic of Tanzania is likely to join the list of the ten most populous countries by the end of the century.
Notably, rapid population growth in these regions presents major challenges for governments in terms of infrastructure planning, education and healthcare. A pressing consideration for many countries in this group is how to minimise future impacts on the environment while meeting the needs of their growing populations. Damage to the environment is often the result of economic processes that lead to higher standards of living. Population growth amplifies these environmental pressures by increasing total economic demand. Many of the countries whose populations are likely to grow rapidly are currently considered to be low-income countries. These countries, which so far account for only a small proportion of global material resource consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, will need to increase their energy consumption significantly if they are to develop economically and meet the goals and targets of the 2030 Agenda. Promoting sustained economic growth in these countries without further damaging the environment will require the support of the international community. High- and middle-income countries that have contributed most to unsustainable patterns of resource use have the greatest responsibility to act quickly.
3.3. Countries expected to peak between 2025 and 2054
In 48 countries and regions, representing 10% of the world’s population in 2024, population size is expected to peak between 2025 and 2054. This group, ‘peaking between 2025 and 2054’, includes Brazil, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Vietnam.
The countries in this group are all in the latter stages of the demographic transition, when fertility falls below the replacement level and population growth slows as the population approaches its maximum size. They face the same challenges and opportunities as countries whose populations have already peaked and those whose populations are expected to continue growing until 2054. In the space of just 30 years, these countries will have to find a balance between the immediate demands of a population that continues to grow and the need to prepare for a population that is older and probably smaller than the current one. In fact, the policies implemented by countries whose populations have already peaked may be of great interest to countries that are likely to reach a population peak in the next 30 years.
IV. The Challenges and Opportunities of the Demographic Transition
One of the most significant aspects of the demographic transition is the rapid increase in the number of elderly people, reflecting the ageing of the population. In 2024, global life expectancy is estimated at 73.3 years, an increase of more than 8 years since 1995. This trend is largely attributed to advances in healthcare, nutrition and the reduction of infant mortality. However, this increased longevity poses considerable challenges for social protection and healthcare systems, particularly in countries where the population is ageing considerably. The report points out that from the 2080s onwards, the number of people aged 65 and over will outnumber children under the age of 18, creating increased pressure on pension systems and long-term care.
On the other hand, in some countries, particularly those where the population is still young and growing, falling birth rates offer a ‘window of opportunity’ for a demographic dividend. This occurs when the proportion of the working-age population increases relative to the non-working-age population, which can stimulate economic growth. To capitalise on this opportunity, countries need to invest in education, health and job creation, while reforming economic and social institutions to encourage innovation and productivity. The countries of sub-Saharan Africa, where the population is still very young, must seize this opportunity to accelerate their economic development.
V. Other issues: International migration and female fertility
International migration also plays a crucial role in world population dynamics. The report shows that in some countries, particularly those with declining populations, immigration partially offsets the effects of low birth rates. For example, immigration is helping to stabilise the population in Germany, Russia and Canada. On the other hand, in other countries, particularly developing ones, the emigration of workers of childbearing age can exacerbate declining birth rates and accelerate the ageing of the population. The report points out that policies aimed at encouraging the return of migrants and offering decent working conditions could be more effective in the short term than policies aimed at increasing the birth rate.
In addition, reducing fertility rates in many parts of the world is closely linked to improving access to education and health, as well as empowering women. The report stresses that one of the most effective ways of reducing high fertility and promoting sustainable development is to ensure that women and girls have equitable access to education and healthcare, including family planning. In countries with high population growth, investing in girls’ education, raising the legal age of marriage and improving maternal health care are key priorities. This not only slows population growth, but also improves women’s participation in economic life, which is essential for long-term sustainable development.
Conclusion
To conclude, the World Population Prospects 2024 report provides us with a detailed analysis of global demographic dynamics and their implications for sustainable development. The diversity of demographic trajectories, with countries already in demographic decline and others still experiencing rapid growth, highlights the need to adopt policies tailored to each context. The main challenges include the rapid ageing of the population in some regions, the management of international migration, and the need to invest in education and health to take advantage of the opportunities offered by the dividend. In other words, population growth, population ageing, urbanisation and international migration are the four major demographic trends shaping our world. It is therefore essential to understand how these demographic trends are likely to evolve in the short, medium and long term to achieve a more inclusive, prosperous and sustainable future. Today, the demographic prospects of countries seem very diverse. Some still have high fertility rates and are growing rapidly, while others have historically low fertility rates. Those that have had low fertility rates for several decades are seeing their populations age rapidly, with some even starting to decline. While these differences are striking, it is important to understand that all populations are following a similar path towards longer lives and smaller families, a process known as demographic transition. Most of the differences stem from the fact that countries are at different stages of this process.
Summary by Ahmed Elbanna
I invite you to read these interviews and article published in the edition :
Humanitarian letter to Jean Noël Barrot, French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs.