“Can the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil cause a tornado in Texas? This statement by meteorologist Edward Lorenz is the origin of the Butterfly Effect theory. Can this theory now be applied to geopolitics, and with what consequences for humanitarian aid?

At the end of the International Conference in Support of Ukraine, which brought together 21 heads of state and government at the Elysée Palace on February 26, French President Emmanuel Macron declared that “nothing must be excluded”, and raised the possibility of Western troops being deployed in Ukraine itself.

Is it triggered by a balance of power that is becoming dangerously unfavorable to the Ukrainians, linked to Trump’s provocative statements about the weakness of the European war effort?

When Vladimir Putin replied in his annual address to the Russian nation, “This constitutes a real threat of conflict with the use of nuclear weapons, which means the destruction of civilization”, is this another Butterfly Effect, and how far could it lead when we know that this Butterfly Effect is also known as chaos theory?

Let’s meditate on the famous phrase by Carl Von Clausewitz, Prussian general, philosopher and military historian, in his book “The Art of War”, when he writes that war is the pursuit of politics by other means. And we are at war today on the European continent, where numerous humanitarian organizations are active in Ukraine to help the victims. Having failed to preserve peace on the continent, are we doomed to see this war last, intensify, expand to other territories, or even escalate to the use of unconventional weapons?

Some figures speak volumes.

France’s defense budget rose from 32.3 billion euros in 2017 to 47 billion euros in 2024, and is expected to reach around 70 billion euros in 2030! The general trend is similar worldwide. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 2022 represents the eighth consecutive year of growth for defense worldwide, estimated at $2,340 billion. Spending in Europe (480 billion euros in 2022) has exceeded its level at the end of the Cold War.

“If you want peace, prepare for war” goes the ancient adage, and that’s exactly what could happen now, as Europe and the United States switch to a war economy and fail to keep Ukraine supplied with shells. Russia produces 2 to 2.5 million shells a year, while the Western commitment to supply one million shells was limited to 300,000 in 9 months out of a one-year commitment.

Experts are now talking about the risk of a tipping point in the war in Ukraine, with a possible final victory for Russia. Faced with this risk, and anxious about the American elections at the end of the year, the countries of Europe are essentially in agreement: “We will do everything we can to ensure that Russia cannot win this war”.

It’s a long road to the causes and consequences that will impact on humanitarian aid and those involved. The geopolitical Butterfly Effect has now spread to the entire planet. The international order that has prevailed since the demise of the USSR is over, and we have entered a phase of fragmentation that has French general Michel Yakolveff saying, “We’re in for 20 years of chaos”.

Against this backdrop, let’s ask ourselves the following question. Is there a link between the war in Ukraine and Azerbaijan’s military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh, now threatening Armenia and leading countries like India and France to supply arms to this country?

Is there an imitation effect between the tug-of-war between the Alliance of Sahel States (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the renewed war in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) between the army and the M23 rebel movement, militarily supported by Rwanda, and a coalition comprising Angola, South Africa and Burundi?

Is it necessary to mention the situation in Gaza to understand, as in Ukraine, that this is also a regional war with a global dimension, which plunges us into the uncertainty of its serious long-term consequences. In any case, let’s be clear here: humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza is an immediate survival emergency, and an absolute moral obligation.

Against a backdrop of deregulation of international relations, weakening of the UN and questioning of Western magisterial authority, this is an opportune moment for countries and actors who would like to take advantage of the situation to seize territories by force.

In an article, journalists Stéphane Aubouard and Alain Léauthier in Marianne calculated that if we added up the populations of countries at war with a state, those in civil war, in hybrid war or in civil war, this would represent 48% of the world’s population. These conflicts are just as likely to worsen as to spread, at a time and in an environment favorable to any challenge to the established order.

What’s the Butterfly Effect for humanitarian aid?

Will humanitarian needs increase, stabilize or decrease? This is the question we need to ask ourselves in order to prepare for the most likely scenario. Fragmentation is a source of conflict, as we can see from the tensions in Moldavia with Transnistria and in the Balkans.

While the consequences of conflict currently account for the lion’s share of humanitarian aid, let’s not forget that climate disruption and its catastrophes, water stress, hunger and the gradual depletion of natural resources against a backdrop of demographic growth and exponentially increasing consumption will amplify and accelerate the need for humanitarian responses.

What will be the trend over the coming years in terms of people’s access to relief? Improvement, stabilization or regression? Do the examples of Gaza, the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine and the war-torn territories of the Sahel countries illustrate the trend?

Will funding be sufficient to meet the vital needs of populations affected by war, disaster or epidemics? According to OCHA and Martin Griffiths, the alarm bells were ringing in 2023, with the worst funding shortfall on record, when only 19.9 billion USD of the 56.7 billion USD estimated at the end of the year had been raised! What will happen in 2024 and beyond?

France, which had increased its Official Development Assistance (ODA) from less than 10 billion euros in 2017 to more than 15 billion in 2022, has just cut its 2024 ODA by 746 million euros as part of a 10 billion euro plan to reduce public spending, for lack of sufficient growth! How can we compensate for this loss, how can we make up for it in 2025?

The big question, then, is whether the new international context of conflict and the arms race, of a transition to a war economy that would cause constraints and shortages in certain sectors, will see ODA and humanitarian aid sanctuarized at the level of needs or, on the contrary, reduced.

Not to mention the risk of humanitarian aid being politicized, both by certain states and by various organizations. The recent publication of an article entitled “La folle dérive des ONG” (“The mad drift of NGOs”) in the magazine Franc-tireur, calling into question the impartiality of human rights NGOs, should give us food for thought about how to maintain public and donor confidence, and strengthen access to populations at risk.

For a humanitarian aggiornamento.

Humanitarians today are faced with a host of challenges, some of which depend on them, others on which they have little or no control. The humanitarian sector needs to reconsider its human, financial and logistical capacities, as well as its capacity for innovation, public support and influence.

Influence is more than ever essential if humanitarian concerns are to be kept alive, broadened and deepened in public policy. Whether we’re talking about ODA, humanitarian funding, access to water, food, shelter and healthcare, or all the interacting factors such as climate, water, natural resources and the environment, all of which I can’t mention here.

Don’t get me wrong, I believe in influencing humanitarian public policy, not in some partisan ideology using humanitarianism to weaken our influence and ultimately our action. Others can do it, but mixing genres is contrary to the humanitarian principles of neutrality, impartiality and independence, which are the main conditions for humanitarian access, often abused, sometimes blocked, but always essential.

In this editorial, despite the description of a rather gloomy geopolitical landscape, my aim is to be realistic. While the worst is fortunately never certain, to prevent it we must act accordingly, and today’s world also harbors many signs of hope, including the precious optimism of the will to avoid chaos and preserve humanism.

This article is an illustration of the editorial policy of the online magazine Défis Humanitaires. Analyze, anticipate, propose and debate for a more intelligent and effective humanitarianism. Debate, as we are doing here once again on the dramatic situation in Gaza, and as we will continue to do for the future of humanitarianism.

 

Alain Boinet

Alain Boinet is President of the association Défis Humanitaires, which publishes the online magazine http://www.defishumanitaires.com. He is the founder of the humanitarian association Solidarités International, of which he was Managing Director for 35 years. He is also a member of the Groupe de Concertation Humanitaire at the Centre de Crise et de Soutien of the French Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs, and of the Board of Directors of Solidarités International, the Partenariat Français pour l’Eau (PFE), the Véolia Foundation and the Think Tank (re)sources. He continues to travel to the field (North-East Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh and Armenia) and to speak to the media.

 

We are pleased to offer you articles and interviews on Gaza, Armenia and Kurdistan, as well as articles on water to mark World Water Day on March 22. Thank you for your support (MakeaDonation). Issue 86 :

• Interview with Danila Zizi from Handicap International
• Armenia : exclusive interview with Olivier Decottignies
• Safe drinking water: what do global statistics tell us that goes beyond official reports?
• “Le Malheur Kurde”
• “L’Eau et la Planète”
• Humanitarian action at the world water forum